Italian Serie A
2026-02-07 - Fiorentina vs Torino
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 24
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florenze, Tuscany, Italy (43,147)
Saturday, 07 February 2026, 20:45 CET
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Fiorentina Team News
Fiorentina, for those who aren't following Serie A closely, has been in dire straits for a long time and tied to the bottom of the table. Now things are marginally better as this is still not a very good team, just not an awful one with a mental blockage.
In each of the last six matches - the last three of them being defeats - both teams found the net. This is the Fiorentina we know and love, a side that always scores and always concedes.
Torino Team News
It's been fifteen Serie A rounds now since Torino's last draw. They either win on lose and the newly discovered concept has served them well as they won 5 times during this span - all of them wins-to-nil - and are sitting comfortably in mid-table. Torino has 26 points, which is 9 more than the first team in the relegation zone which is Fiorentina, so relegation isn't a real worry. Once again, Torino will finish in mid-table and will love every second of the journey. European spots are 15 points away so that's not a realistic target.
Probable Lineups
Fiorentina (3-5-2): De Gea - Pongracic, Mari, Ranieri - Dodo, Mandragora, Caviglia, Fagioli, Fortini - Gudmunssson, Kean. Coach Vanioli.
Torino (3-5-2): Israel - Ismajli, Tameze, Coco - Pedersen, Casadei, Ilkhan, Vlasic, Lazaro - Adams, Ngonge. Coach Baroni.
The Betting Market
Fiorentina is a 1.77 favourite here, and we'd only take that price if the opponent was someone like Cagliari. Although, that fixture actually happened two weeks ago and Cagliari won 1-2. Fiorentina is far from being capable of controlling a football game against a mid-table side like Torino so we'd stay away from this 1.77.
Over/Under is split down the middle at 1.90 so it's up to you to flip a coin. Over 2.5 Goals is certainly more likely as we expect both teams to score at least once, which is priced at 1.80, by the way.
The Betting Verdict
Betting on Fiorentina to both score and concede has been free money recently and we expect the trend to continue. Torino isn't known as an offensive juggernaut to say the least, but Nikola Vlasic is in good form and he's carrying the offense of this team. They'll find a way to capitalize on Fiorentina's lacklustre defending just like everyone else.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Fiorentina 1-1 Torino
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Both Teams To Score: YES at 1.80 at Bet365
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Fiorentina are rated almost half a goal better than Torino in my stats, mainly because "Il Toro" were absolutely awful in losing thier last away game 0-6 at Como.
But Fiorentina are sitting in 18th, with just 3 wins all season and so there is no way we want to be backing the home side at prices way below even money.
A quick look at the last nine h2H games shows 3 Fiorentina wins, 5 draws, and one Torino win, with none of the wins by more than a single goal margin.
Put bluntly, these sides are comfortable with a draw right now (it would move Fiorentina to 17th), and it's a result that seems to happen an awful lot when these sides clash.
My stats say it's a 32% draw chance, and the odds are creeping up to 3.80 - 3.90 giving us 120%+ of the EV price.
I'll take the DRAW at 3.83 at CLoudbet, 3.80 at Bet365 or +410 at Bookmaker.EU if you're lucky enough to be a US punter who can bet there !!
But Fiorentina are sitting in 18th, with just 3 wins all season and so there is no way we want to be backing the home side at prices way below even money.
A quick look at the last nine h2H games shows 3 Fiorentina wins, 5 draws, and one Torino win, with none of the wins by more than a single goal margin.
Put bluntly, these sides are comfortable with a draw right now (it would move Fiorentina to 17th), and it's a result that seems to happen an awful lot when these sides clash.
My stats say it's a 32% draw chance, and the odds are creeping up to 3.80 - 3.90 giving us 120%+ of the EV price.
I'll take the DRAW at 3.83 at CLoudbet, 3.80 at Bet365 or +410 at Bookmaker.EU if you're lucky enough to be a US punter who can bet there !!
