German Bundesliga
2026-02-14 - TSG Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
PreZero Arena – Sinsheim
Saturday, 14th February 2026 - kickoff 15:30 CET
TSG Hoffenheim
TSG Hoffenheim’s impressive run came to a dramatic halt last week as they were beaten 5‑1 by Bayern Munich, a high defeat affected in part by the early red card shown to Kevin Akpoguma just 17 minutes in. TSG Hoffenheim were already down 3-1 by halftime, and Luis Diaz’s second‑half hat‑trick compounded a difficult day for Christian Ilzer’s side.
Last week’s Bundesliga defeat ended a seven‑match unbeaten streak (six wins, one draw) and halted TSG Hoffenheim’s strong climb in the table.
At home, though, TSG Hoffenheim have been fantastic this season. After a rocky start with three straight home losses, they won their next seven home games in the Bundesliga, and another home victory here would set a new club record for single‑season home wins.
Confidence will be high when playing in front of their own fans, and their ability to control games through possession and pressing remains a top point of their approach.
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg head into this weekend off the back of a 1‑0 win over Werder Bremen last week, a gritty performance that saw them hold on despite Johan Mazambi’s red card midway through the second half. That result kept them in the hunt for European places, so they should be motivated here.
The Black Forest club have also enjoyed a positive DFB Pokal campaign, progressing to the semifinals for the third time in five years after a penalty shootout win over Hertha Berlin last midweek.
SC Freiburg’s Bundesliga away record this season tells a familiar story: solid at times but not spectacular. SC Freiburg have won only two of nine road games (three draws, six losses) and are a side that often grinds out narrow results rather than running teams off the park. In contrast, their home form has historically been strong, though that won’t factor here.
The Betting Verdict
The recent head‑to‑head between these two sides favors SC Freiburg, who are unbeaten in eight Bundesliga meetings with TSG Hoffenheim, winning 15 of those clashes (13 draws, 7 defeats).
Their 1‑1 draw earlier this season extends that trend, and psychologically, they tend to cope well with TSG Hoffenheim’s attacking threat.
TSG Hoffenheim will be confident at home, and their seven straight home wins in the Bundesliga show they can dominate the areas of the pitch where they are strongest.
SC Freiburg, by contrast, have been less consistent on the road and tends to make matches tight rather than expansive.
I see this game as a narrow home win. TSG Hoffenheim must respond after their heavy defeat last week, and SC Freiburg are poor travelers but are not always easy to break down.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
TSG Hoffenheim 1-0 SC Freiburg
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take TSG Hoffenheim to win at odds of 1.73 at Bet365
