Italian Serie A
2026-02-14 - Como vs Fiorentina
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 25
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como, Lombardy, Italy (13,602)
Saturday, 14 February 2026, 15:00 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
Como Team News
We can write the same thing about Como every week -- this side is continuously improving. One of these days, you'll start treating them as a staple of Serie A, though this will take years. They're on the way, though, and nothing will stop them.
This season, Como's goal is to qualify for Europe, and at the moment they're holding the 6th spot that guarantees Conference League. With five really good, big teams, and Atalanta breathing down their neck from the 7th spot, #6 will likely be the limit.
This means that casual punters probably won't give much attention to Como as they creep slowly towards having the same status as the eight big teams (Inter, Milan, Juventus, Roma, Lazio, Fiorentina, Napoli, Atalanta). You will because you read it here, and you'd be advised to continue betting on Como.
Fiorentina Team News
There's still some life left in Fiorentina and they've apparently learned to get positive results with this strange roster and no cohesion, but things won't get better for them before a serious rebuild happens in the offseason.
They'll win here and there, they'll manage to stay in Serie A without any problems, but they won't suddenly start performing like a top-six side. That much is obvious by now.
Fiorentina is the first team in the relegation zone and in the last three rounds they've failed to beat Cagliari at home and Torino at home, with the away defeat to Napoli an expected one.
They thought they have Torino on the ropes but the 94th-minute equalizer for 2-2 shattered their hopes of climbing out of the relegation zone. It likely won't happen here in Como but fortunately Fiorentina is hosting Pisa next.
Probable Lineups
Como (4-2-3-1): Butez - Smolcic, Kempf, Ramon, Valle - Perrone, Da Cunha - Addai, Paz, Baturina - Morata. Coach Fabregas.
Fiorentina (4-3-3): De Gea - Dodo, Comuzzo, Pongracic, Parisi - Dodo, Mandragora, Fagioli, Brescianini - Harrison, Kean, Solomon. Coach Vanioli.
Gudmundsson and Rugani have practiced separately and likely won't play for Fiorentina here.
The Betting Market
We're fortunate to be getting more than 1.70 here because of the visiting team name and roster millions, though the table will tell the real story about Fiorentina's quality. They don't really belong at the bottom, but what they're doing this year is certainly bottom-third material.
Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score: YES are the slightly favoured outcomes at 1.80 and 1.75 respectively, and we agree with this assessment, but these markets are best left alone as all the value is on Como to do well here.
The Betting Verdict
Como is a very well-coached team, which means they should inherently have the upper hand against any team that is poorly coached or in a general state of disarray. This, in fact, perfectly describes Fiorentina, which means we'll be witnessing a battle between an organized team and a disorganized one. There's always only one possible result when that happens.
This Fiorentina can only do well when they have more technical quality than the opponent or/and better offensive players. That's when they can hope to get something, based on player quality alone. Here, against Como, you can't play on individual player quality, you have to be a team throughout. Como will work their way to a goal or two here, and Fiorentina won't be able to do much about it, unless by some accident.
These sides met recently, on 27 January, in the cup. The match was played in Florenze and Como won easily 1-3, with an xG of 1.92 compared to Fiorentina's 0.53. Como was superior in all aspects of the game of football and we expect things to not change for the worse here.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Como 2-0 Fiorentina
