Champions League
2026-02-18 - Qarabag vs Newcastle United
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: UEFA Champions League Knock Out Play Off First Leg
Wednesday 18th February 2025 - Kick Off 5:45pm
This game is live on TV
Qarabag
They have been the dominant club in the Azerbaijan top flight, but Qarabag know that it is a big step up when playing in any of the UEFA competitions. An immediate challenge is negotiating the Qualifying Rounds with Qarabag usually joining the Champions League very early and that has led to the majority of football played after August being in either the Europa League or Conference League.
This season has been a remarkable success and Qarabag have not only managed to Qualify for a place in the new format of the Champions League Group Stage, but they have surprisingly found a way through to the Knock Out Play Off Rounds. Credit has to be given to Qarabag considering the likes of Marseille, Ajax, Athletic Bilbao and Napoli have been eliminated, and 'The Horsemen' have built their success on a 2-1-1 record at home in the League Phase of the competition.
Qarabag's return from the Winter Break has led to some mixed results- they did beat Eintracht Frankfurt on Match Day 7 of the Champions League Group Stage, but then lost 3 of 4 games in all competitions before bouncing back for consecutive wins. The First Leg of this Knock Out tie feels massive for Qarabag who have won 6 of the last 8 fixtures they have hosted, although the exceptions have both ended in defeat.
The home squad looks about as healthy as Qarabag could have asked for ahead of this very big fixture.
Newcastle United
There was plenty of controversy involved in the Newcastle United FA Cup Fourth Round win at Villa Park on Saturday and manager Eddie Howe could not quite work out if he was happy to have played the fixture without VAR or not. His team did manage to book a place in the Fifth Round, which ultimately matters most, and Newcastle United will be looking to progress to the Champions League Last 16 and join the other five English Premier League clubs involved in this competition.
Those other five clubs all finished in the top eight in the League Phase of the competition and that earned them direct spots in the Last 16, but Newcastle United finished 14th and have to go through the Knock Out Play Off Round. The draw looks a kind one on paper for a club that have never played a Knock Out tie in the top UEFA competition before and Newcastle United did finish the League Phase with a 1-2-1 away record in the competition.
Newcastle United have been struggling for consistency in the domestic top flight, but they will be travelling to Azerbaijan with more confidence having won consecutive fixtures against Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa. Both of those wins have come away from St James' Park, which is another boost for The Magpies, while Newcastle United have forced away draws at Bayer Leverkusen and Paris Saint-Germain since losing at Marseille in the Champions League.
Bruno Guimaraes is going to be a big miss and is not expected to return to action until after the March international break. Sven Botman and Yoane Wissa were not risked on Saturday and are both hoping to travel, although Lewis Miley and Joelinton are expected to miss out.
Head to Head
This is the first time Qarabag and Newcastle United are facing one another in a competitive fixture.
Prediction
There are definitely going to be bigger ambitions at Newcastle United compared with Qarabag when it comes to how far these respective teams can go in the Champions League.
The Azerbaijani Champions have done really well to merely earn a spot in the thirty-six team League Phase of the competition having needed to win three Qualifying ties. They entered that Group as one of the teams most likely to be eliminated before the Knock Out Play Off Round, but Qarabag have been very good at home and have found some big results throughout the eight Match Days to earn their place in the next Round.
This is already going to feel like Qarabag are playing with 'house money' and they will certainly feel they can pose problems for Newcastle United at home.
Qarabag have scored a lot of goals here in the Champions League- in each of the last 6 home Champions League games, Qarabag have scored at least twice and that includes holding Chelsea to a 2-2 draw. On that day, Enzo Maresca had made wholesale changes to his team and Qarabag felt the power of the English Premier League when thumped 6-0 at Anfield on Match Day 8 last month, but the attacking qualities at home will make them dangerous.
Character has been shown to earn some of the positive results here and Qarabag will feel they have nothing to lose, which does make them dangerous.
There is more pressure on Newcastle United to simply join the other five English clubs in the Champions League who have all reached the Last 16. However, Eddie Howe has to be feeling pretty good having overseen away wins at Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa and his Newcastle United team have put up some solid away performances in the Champions League too.
Being without Bruno Guimaraes is a big blow, but the attacking qualities in the Newcastle United squad should give them the edge in the First Leg.
It would not be a big surprise if Qarabag play their part, but you have to feel the quality of the English Premier League will eventually shine through for Newcastle United.
They are not going to make the wholesale changes that cost Chelsea and Newcastle United can secure a lead that places one foot into the Last 16 draw before the teams meet again next week.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Qarabag 1-3 Newcastle United
