German Bundesliga
2026-04-04 - VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
MHP Arena – Stuttgart
Saturday, 04th April 2026 - kickoff 18:30 CET
VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart are undefeated in 13 of their last 14 Bundesliga games, getting closer to securing UEFA Champions League football for next season.
The Swabians beat Augsburg 2-5 in their last game before the international break, which was their third win in the last four Bundesliga games.
At home, they have been fantastic all season – VfB Stuttgart won 10 of 13 home games, including all of the last four.
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund are having a very strong season. They lost only once in their last 20 Bundesliga matches (to Bayern Munich at the end of February), which is great but still not enough to become Bundesliga champions.
Borussia Dortmund came back from two goals down to beat Hamburger SV 3-2 in their last Bundesliga match, their third straight victory in the league.
The last match was also Borussia Dortmund’s 13th straight Bundesliga game in which they scored 2+ goals.
Midfielder Felix Nmecha suffered a knee ligament injury in that last game against Hamburger SV and will be out of the team for several weeks.
The Betting Verdict
VfB Stuttgart have been superior to Borussia Dortmund in recent years. They beat them 5 out of the last 6 duels, with their first duel this season ending in a thrilling 3-3 draw.
I expect another similar game, with both sides going for a win and scoring goals. Not backing a winner here, but I believe backing a combo bet of both teams to score and over 2.5 goals is worth a shot.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
VfB Stuttgart 2-2 Borussia Dortmund
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take both teams to score & over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.62 at BetFred
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
This is the feature match on Saturday and 3rd placed Stuttgart host 2nd placed Dortmund and my rankings have these teams almost even at 1087 v 1083 - suggesting a close game.
But, the nature of the Bundesliga this season, with Bayern Munich way out in front, and few other challengers for a top six spot means that this match is actually not impactful overall. A drawn game with honour shared would not be a bad result for either side.
Dortmund, dominated this fixture in past seasons, but in the last 2-3 years Stuttgart's resurgence has seen them with the upper hand winning 4 in a row before a 3-3 draw in Dortmund last November.
The draw price of 3.90 really stands out as +EV, and in fact I got 4.10 by shopping for a best price just an hour ago.
Take the DRAW at 3.90 with Bet365 or 4.01 with CLoudbet
But, the nature of the Bundesliga this season, with Bayern Munich way out in front, and few other challengers for a top six spot means that this match is actually not impactful overall. A drawn game with honour shared would not be a bad result for either side.
Dortmund, dominated this fixture in past seasons, but in the last 2-3 years Stuttgart's resurgence has seen them with the upper hand winning 4 in a row before a 3-3 draw in Dortmund last November.
The draw price of 3.90 really stands out as +EV, and in fact I got 4.10 by shopping for a best price just an hour ago.
Take the DRAW at 3.90 with Bet365 or 4.01 with CLoudbet
