German Bundesliga
2026-04-11 - Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
Signal Iduna Park – Dortmund
Saturday, 11th April 2026 - kickoff 15:30 CET
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund have been on fire in 2026. They collected 28 of the possible 33 points in this second part of the season, the best record among all German teams this year.
They got lucky to beat VfB Stuttgart 0-2 in their last game, even though the result is misleading. They scored both goals a few minutes after the 90th minute, in two attacks right before the final whistle. Still, that win kept them firmly in the second position, nine points behind Bayern Munich with six matches left.
Last week’s win was Borussia Dortmund’s 14th straight Bundesliga match in which they scored 2+ goals, keeping that streak alive. Also, it was their 10th win from the last 12 Bundesliga games.
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen travels to Dortmund as unbeaten in six consecutive Bundesliga games, with four of those ending in draws.
Bayer Leverkusen was stellar last week in the 6-3 win over Wolfsburg, keeping their Champions League hopes alive. That win put them sixth on the Bundesliga table, four points behind the last Champions League spot.
At away grounds, Bayer Leverkusen have lost only once in their last six matches, winning twice and drawing three times.
The Betting Verdict
Borussia Dortmund beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 in their first Bundesliga duel at the end of November, but three days later, Bayer Leverkusen eliminated Borussia Dortmund from the cup, beating them in Dortmund.
Both sides have high motives, so this should be an open and very entertaining game to watch and bet on.
I believe the best bet here is taking both teams to score at fair odds.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take both teams to score: YES at odds of 1.50 with Cloudbet
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
There are lots of ways to look at football matches and analyse form and performances but sometimes I like to keep it simple - especially when it comes to the German Bundesliga.
Right now in the Bundesliga it's pretty easy to assess team strength as the top six all have a positive goal difference, and the bottom twelve sides are all negative.
And a closer examination shows might Bayern Munich way out in front with a +73 GD (!!), Dortmund second with +32, and the next four sides with +14 to +19.
So while this is a top six battle, there is a clear ranking and rating advantage of about 0.75 goals per game for Dortmund.
And this is backed up with recent form, with Dortmund 8-1-1 in their last 10 games, while Leverkusen are just 4-5-1, not easy to beat but wobbling now and not in great form.
My sheet pulls out 75 previously similar rated games in the Bundesliga in the last 25 years and the home side wins about 60% of the time. Given that I can get odds of around 2.00 (evens) on a home win that's a clear +EV bet
Take DORTMUND to win at 2.01 with CLoudbet, +101 with Bookmaker.EU, or 1.95 with Bet365, depending on your location and betting jurisdiction.
Right now in the Bundesliga it's pretty easy to assess team strength as the top six all have a positive goal difference, and the bottom twelve sides are all negative.
And a closer examination shows might Bayern Munich way out in front with a +73 GD (!!), Dortmund second with +32, and the next four sides with +14 to +19.
So while this is a top six battle, there is a clear ranking and rating advantage of about 0.75 goals per game for Dortmund.
And this is backed up with recent form, with Dortmund 8-1-1 in their last 10 games, while Leverkusen are just 4-5-1, not easy to beat but wobbling now and not in great form.
My sheet pulls out 75 previously similar rated games in the Bundesliga in the last 25 years and the home side wins about 60% of the time. Given that I can get odds of around 2.00 (evens) on a home win that's a clear +EV bet
Take DORTMUND to win at 2.01 with CLoudbet, +101 with Bookmaker.EU, or 1.95 with Bet365, depending on your location and betting jurisdiction.
