German Bundesliga
2026-04-12 - Mainz vs SC Freiburg
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
MEWA Arena - Mainz
Sunday, 12th April 2026 - kickoff 19:30 CET
Mainz
Mainz are on a stunning run of six unbeaten games in the Bundesliga, drawing three and winning their last three.
Those three straight wins lifted them up to mid-table, but they are not yet 100% safe. They are currently 8 points above the relegation playoff spot with 6 games remaining, but one more win should, in theory, seal the deal for them.
Besides winning games in the Bundesliga, Mainz are also close to reaching the UEFA Conference League semifinals after beating Strasbourg 2-0 at home last Thursday evening, putting on another excellent display.
Only Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, and VfB Stuttgart have a better record than Mainz since last December.
Another great thing about Mainz is that they scored 2+ goals in five straight competitive matches, so their attack is very efficient.
On top of everything, Mainz are unbeaten in their last six home games in the Bundesliga, winning four of them.
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg are with one leg in a European semifinal after downing Celta Vigo in the UEFA Europa League last Thursday. The team's mood is very positive. They are relaxed, and they travel to Mainz without any pressure.
SC Freiburg are unlikely to qualify for Europe through the Bundesliga, as they are mid-table and have lost three of their last five games. That includes a heartbreaking 2-3 defeat to Bayern Munich last week, even though they were 2-0 up.
A certain rotation is expected in this game, with coach Julian Schuster likely to rest some first-team players who played a lot in recent weeks.
SC Freiburg have been overall poor travellers in this season’s Bundesliga, recording just 3 wins in their 14 away games. Recently, they went on a three-match losing streak on the road before finally beating St.Pauli (1-2) in their most recent away game.
The Betting Verdict
SC Freiburg is unbeaten in 9 straight duels against Mainz across competitions, and thrashed them 4-0 in their first Bundesliga match this season. Can that negative trend finally end for Mainz?
Mainz is in excellent shape. They are revived, a different side since last December. Their form is among the best in Germany, and I believe they have a strong chance of winning here.
Since Mainz is still not perfectly safe, points matter a lot to them. This should be a very competitive game, and I expect Mainz to win at good odds.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Mainz 2-1 SC Freiburg
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Mainz to win at odds of 2.30 with BetFred
