Champions League
2026-04-15 - Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: UEFA Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg
Wednesday 15th April 2026 - Kick Off 8pm
This game is live on TV
Bayern Munich
Recent history against Real Madrid will mean Bayern Munich fans are still nervous ahead of this Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg, despite the lead from the First Leg at the Santiago Bernebeu. Vincent Kompany may feel his team let Real Madrid off the hook having moved into a 0-2 lead, but Bayern Munich do have a narrow lead to protect in front of the home supporters.
Confidence will come from the fact Bayern Munich have won all 5 Champions League home games and scored 16 goals in those victories, while conceding just 3. However, the removal of the away goals rule means there is little room for error as far as Bayern Munich are concerned and the manager may set them up to play this Second Leg as if the game is still level.
Bayern Munich are unbeaten in 15 games in all competitions and they have won 13 of those matches, including the last 5 in a row since the 1-1 draw with Bayer Leverkusen. The side have won 6 in a row at home in all competitions and Bayern Munich have scored at least twice in all of those victories, but impressively have scored four or more goals in 4 wins.
Some changes were made for the convincing win at St Pauli in the Bundesliga this past weekend, but a strong Bayern Munich will be selected to complete the Quarter Final success in the Champions League.
Real Madrid
Despite selecting a number of important players, Alvaro Arbeloa may feel the dropped points at home have cost Real Madrid the chance of chasing down Barcelona in the Spanish title race. There are now 9 points between the rivals and with seven League matches to be played, while the current man in charge has a lot of work to do to help Real Madrid find a way into the Champions League Semi Final.
A club like Real Madrid don't count successes in making the Quarter Final of the Champions League and a second straight exit in this Round since winning the competition will be a big disappointment. Halving the deficit in the First Leg has offered Real Madrid an opportunity to turn things back around, but the manager will need the team to be much more organised defensively to do that. They have won both away Knock Out ties played to reach the Quarter Final and Real Madrid have won 4 of 6 away Champions League games overall.
Real Madrid have returned from the March international break with 2 consecutive losses before the 1-1 draw with Girona this past weekend. They played out a fixture at Girona that finished with the same scoreline back in November, but Real Madrid have won 8 of 12 away games in all competitions since then. However, it should be noted that the other 4 away fixtures have all ended in defeat, including the 2-1 defeat at Mallorca most recently.
Jude Bellingham made an influential appearance from the bench in the First Leg of this tie and started this past weekend, which suggests the same here. Thibaut Courtois is a big miss in goal, although has stated he could return for any Champions League Semi Final if Real Madrid can overturn this First Leg deficit.
Head to Head
Bayern Munich had won none of the previous 9 games against Real Madrid before the win last week in the Spanish capital.
They had lost 3 in a row in Bavaria when hosting Real Madrid, but the last time here ended 2-2 in the Champions League Semi Final First Leg in 2024.
Prediction
The selection for the First Leg of this Quarter Final was for at least four goals to be shared out, but that came up short, despite the huge chances that both teams were able to create.
Layers were offering odds against quotes for the First Leg, but the over 3.5 goals option is an odds on shot in the Second Leg.
It is understandable with the quality of the attacking players that will be taking to the field and the expectation that the same opportunities in the final third are likely to be converted with more authority.
Bayern Munich will be really pleased to be returning home with a 2-1 lead, but it could have been much more comfortable and there is still work to do.
After taking a 0-2 lead, Bayern Munich perhaps did not kick on as hoped and Real Madrid offered a big threat at the end of the First Leg with Jude Bellingham returning to make a difference. The Englishman is going to be available for this Second Leg from the outset and Real Madrid will certainly not feel that this tie is over, even if Bayern Munich have won all 5 home Champions League games this season.
Real Madrid have won both away Knock Out ties and that would be enough to at least force Extra Time, while they have won 4 of 6 away Champions League games overall this season.
However, the 2 exceptions have both ended in defeat and containing this Bayern Munich team in front of the home fans looks a tough task.
Last year Real Madrid were beaten heavily at Arsenal in the Champions League Quarter Final, but they should offer more resistance in this one.
The problem for Real Madrid is that they may have to take risks at some stage of the contest and that is where Bayern Munich can punish them.
The Bundesliga's best have won 6 in a row at home in all competitions and scored goals for fun in those fixtures- they have also scored 16 goals in 5 home Champions League games and Bayern Munich should have the experience needed to make sure they progress to the Semi Final without too many nervous moments going into the final few minutes.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Bayern Munich 3-1 Real Madrid
