UEFA Nations
2026-10-02 - France vs Italy
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: UEFA Nations League Match Day 3
Friday 2nd October 2026 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
France
Zinedine Zidane will be very happy with the start made to life as the new France national team manager, but fans may have been hoping for more as an attacking threat after the Didier Deschamps era. Maximum points in this Nations League Group is a positive, but both France wins have been by the same 0-1 scoreline and they will be playing at home under Zidane for the first time.
Wins in Turkiye and Belgium has taken France to the top of the section and they can take complete control of the Group with another victory on Match Day 3. Both wins have been earned away from home, which deserves a lot of respect, but France will feel there is more to come at both ends of the field even as they deal with a number of key absentees.
France had reached the World Cup Semi Final in the last tournament played under Didier Deschamps, but the tournament ended in defeats to Spain and England. They had won all 6 games at the 2026 World Cup and had conceded just twice in those victories, but France conceded eight goals in the two losses. France have won 5 of the last 6 home competitive fixtures, although the exception was a goalless draw with Israel in the last Nations League Group.
Italy
Roberto Mancini understood why the home fans booed his team off after Italy's defeat to Belgium, while he spent much of the last few days distancing himself from the controversy surrounding Manchester City during his time managing that club. He needed something positive and Italy's big win in Turkiye may have given Roberto Mancini some breathing room.
This is an extended international break and that does mean Italy have a couple more Nations League games to play in their bid to reach the Quarter Final of this competition. Beating Turkiye has given the team a boost, but Italy will know that this Match Day 3 fixture looks the toughest on paper within this section and could put the players and manager under early pressure ahead of the rematch with Turkiye next week.
Italy missed out on the World Cup Finals for a third tournament in a row and this is a huge embarrassment to the nation and meant turning back to Roberto Mancini. He had a successful last tenure of the national team in terms of winning the delayed Euro 2020 tournament, but Italy have struggled overall. Italy have lost 1 of the last 11 away games in all competitions, while they have won 5 of the last 6 away Nations League games following the win in Bursa on Match Day 2.
Head to Head
France have won 4 of the last 5 games against Italy, although the exception is a 1-3 home defeat in the last Nations League Group Stage.
Prediction
This is one of the standout fixtures of Match Day 3 of the Nations League, although Italy have not been the same European powerhouse as years gone by.
It is a statement underlined by the fact that Italy missed out on the World Cup Finals this past summer and have failed to play on that stage since 2014.
Roberto Mancini is back and overseen a big win in Turkiye, but Italy will need some time to turn things around and the home loss to Belgium is a big blow.
Italy have won 5 of the last 6 away Nations League games while playing in League A and that has to be respected. They have won in France during that run, but Zinedine Zidane's team have won the opening two games under his guidance and playing at home for the first time should inspire the crowd to really get behind the players.
Out of the two teams, France have impressed a little more than Italy in the opening fixtures in the Nations League.
Kylian Mbappe may be missing, but France will take a huge amount of encouragement from the chances that Italy have given up against Belgium and Turkiye. There is still enough talent in this French squad to believe they can expose those defensive holes and France have also begun this Nations League Group looking much more secure at the back compared with Italy.
Nothing ever comes easily against the Italians, even as they have dipped from the heady heights of years gone by, but France should have the firepower to wear them down and ultimately see Zidane oversee his first home game in charge of the national team by leading them to a strong win.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
France 3-1 Italy
