Italian Serie A
2026-10-31 - AC Milan vs Inter Milan
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Italy Serie A
Saturday, October 31, 2026, at 20:45 CET
A packed San Siro is something to behold, but in recent years, the traditional home advantage in this fixture seems to have become less important.
With the advent of VAR and the removal of some of the old advantages that home sides enjoyed, the results have been remarkably even. Across the last 20 editions of this derby over ten seasons, the split is 7-5-8, with the nominal away team actually winning more often.
With that in mind, I have a feeling that table-topping Inter Milan who are 8-1-0 in Serie A so far this season, and are available at a price worth taking, even at around 2.00 / evens / +100 depending on your odds format.
AC Milan have made a good start themselves, sitting fifth with a record of 5-3-1. Their only league defeat came on Wednesday, when they conceded four goals at home to Bologna in midweek, which won’t have done much for confidence.
If Milan fall behind here, there could be some uncomfortable moments for the Rossoneri.
Both sides have European commitments coming up in midweek, with Inter travelling to Rotterdam to face Feyenoord in the Champions League on Tuesday, while AC Milan host Ferencváros in the Europa League on Thursday.
Those fixtures will be important, particularly for Inter, who are still trying to build their points tally in the Champions League league phase. But neither side is likely to put European progress ahead of this derby.
Beating your fiercest rivals matters rather more than picking up three points in the preliminary league stage of a European competition. I'd expect both managers to give this one their full attention, with any thoughts of squad rotation taking a back seat.
Milan have the longer injury list. Inter, however, will be without their captain Lautaro Martínez, which is a significant absence. I’m not pretending that’s irrelevant. It isn’t.
But even allowing for that, I think Inter are worth backing. The recent history of this fixture suggests that the home side shouldn’t be given too much extra credit, and the league leaders look a decent price to win.
I’ll take Inter Milan at 2.05 or better.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
AC Milan 1-2 Inter Milan
