NFL Football
2011-09-18 - Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 2
Sunday 18 September 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The reigning SuperBowl Champions, the Green Bay Packers (1-0), kicked off the new season in style as they held off the New Orleans Saints and set down a marker for the rest of the League. They face a Carolina Panthers (0-1) team that came close to recording the upset at Arizona in Week 1 and one that would have been extremely happy with the performance of Number 1 Draft Pick, Cam Newton.
Cam Newton was heavily discussed before the Draft and after the Draft as people could not make up their minds if he could perform in the NFL after only 1 season in College. He put some of those doubters in an uncomfortable position as he threw for 422 yards in the opener at Arizona, the most ever for a rookie QB in his first start.
The performance impressed a lot of people and received national attention although it is going to be a lot tougher to do that against the Packers Defense that has a lot to prove this week.
Green Bay were shredded by Drew Brees and the powerful New Orleans Offense in the opening game of the season, but they have been talking themselves up by stating that they made the big stops when they needed to. Tramon Williams will be hoping he can take his place in the starting line up after hurting his shoulder last week against the Saints.
So while the Defense has some things to think about concerning Newton, Aaron Rodgers and the Offense must have been licking their chops to get involved with the Carolina Secondary. Rodgers picked up the NFC award for Offensive Player of the Week, after throwing 3 TDs and over 300 yards in the opener, and he has so many options to throw to that it is hard to see how the Panthers contain him.
The bigger issue was the number of blown coverages by the Secondary at Arizona, something that will see the Packers put up a lot of points quickly if they do not work on that all week.
Another worry for the Panther Defensive Unit is the loss of Jon Beason (LB) for the season. Beason is considered one of the leaders of the locker room and his place will be taken by Dan Connor on Sunday, a player that started 8 games last season.
Head to Head
These two NFC teams will meet for the first time since 2008 when the Panthers won a shootout at Lambeau Field.
They last played here in 2005 in another high scoring game that was won by the Panthers.
The teams have split the last 4 games straight up, but Green Bay are 3-1 against the spread.
Green Bay are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 visits to Carolina.
The road team is 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 games between the teams.
Carolina are 0-1 against the spread this season, Green Bay are 1-0.
Other Interesting Notes
Carolina finished 2-6 against the spread at home last season.
They are 1-7 against the spread in the last 8 games they have played against NFC opponents.
They are 1-6 against the spread in the last 7 games where the Panthers are the underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Carolina are 25-37 against the spread at home since 2003.
Green Bay are 21-8-1 against the spread in their last 30 games overall.
They are 12-3-1 against the spread in their last 16 games against teams with losing records.
They are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games as the favourite.
The Packers are 6-1-1 against the spread in the last 8 games where they are favoured by between 3.5 and 10 points.
Green Bay are 29-14 against the spread on the road under Mike McCarthy.
Unsurprisingly, 86% of the wagers made in Vegas have fallen for Green Bay.
Prediction
I really expect the Packers to be too strong for the Panthers, but I am not a big fan of taking double digit favourites, especially on the road.
Therefore, the first thing I would suggest is taking the 9.5 spread that is still available in a few places rather than the 10 which is popping up in more places.
Green Bay should have a lot of success with their Offense in this game considering the Panthers' Defensive unit have lost their leader for the season and were leaving gaping holes last week at Arizona. The Packers have far too many Offensive weapons to be shut down and I expect them to put up quite a few points.
The Panthers will only keep up if Cam Newton can replicate the performance from last week, but the Packers are one of the most complicated Defenses in the League and they are bound to make life especially tough for the rookie.
I can see them forcing a few mistakes from Newton as the game wears on and he tries to keep the Panthers in touch, and that should lead the Packers to a comfortable win.
Green Bay have also had a few more days to prepare for this game and I expect them to come out with a much better Defensive performance from the game against New Orleans.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Carolina Panthers 13-34 Green Bay Packers
