Rugby League
2026-10-04 - Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : NRL Grand Final 2026
Sunday 4th October 2026 - KO 1930 AEST
Sydney Roosters
The Roosters arrive in the Grand Final with a huge amount of momentum. After their qualifying-final defeat to Penrith, Trent Robinson's team could easily have been rattled. Instead, they responded with two emphatic victories and have now scored 82 points in their past two finals, that tells you something about where this team is at offensively.
The Roosters biggest weapon remains their spine - James Tedesco continues to provide leadership and attacking support from fullback, while Daly Cherry-Evans brings arguably the greatest big-game experience of anyone on the field. Add to that Sam Walker, his return from ankle syndesmosis surgery has been one of the stories of the finals. Walker came back against the Dolphins and helped the Roosters produce an outstanding attacking performance. Lastly you have Reece Robson, who provides excellent distribution from hooker and is defensively very reliable.
The combination with Cherry-Evans is fascinating because the two players offer different things. Walker provides instinctive attacking ability, a short kicking game and the capacity to create something from nothing while Cherry-Evans provides control and experience at this level. He knows when to slow the game down, when to kick long, when to attack the line and when to simply put the ball into the corner. For a Grand Final, that combination could be extremely valuable.
Behind them is a backline containing enormous strike. Daniel Tupou and Mark Nawaqanitawase are the wingers, with Billy Smith and Robert Toia in the centres. Nawaqanitawase has been particularly outstanding during the finals, producing a remarkable 329 running metres and two tries against the Dolphins. Tedesco - He may not be the player he was at his absolute peak, but he remains an enormously important part of the Roosters structure. He gets involved early, takes pressure off the forwards and provides another ball-playing option around the middle.
As for the forwards - Naufahu Whyte, Lindsay Collins, Victor Radley will be expected to take the fight to Newcastle, with Angus Crichton, Nat Butcher and Spencer Leniu providing impact from the bench. Whyte was outstanding against the Dolphins, producing 205 running metres, while Robson and Salesi Foketi combined for 80 tackles.
Newcastle Knights
What Newcastle have achieved this season is extraordinary. A club that finished with the wooden spoon last year is now one win away from becoming NRL premiers, incredible really.The Knights have already had to survive situations that would have broken many teams, they have played three consecutive sudden-death finals and could become the first ever team to win the title from outside the top 8, requiring 4 sudden death victories in a row.
They have travelled to New Zealand and won. They have played a preliminary final against Penrith, lost a key player to a send-off and then come back from eight points down. They have shown an extraordinary ability to remain in games and that has been built around defence. Remarkably, the Knights have conceded just 42 points across their three finals victories. Their attack has not always been spectacular, but when they have needed a play, someone has produced it.
Against Penrith, that someone was Sandon Smith. Smith produced two extraordinary moments, including a brilliant individual play that helped Newcastle take the lead before an interception try in the dying stages sealed the victory. He finished with 178 run metres and 256 kick metres. That is the sort of performance Newcastle will need again.
At the back is Kalyn Ponga. The Knights captain is the player most capable of changing this Grand Final with one moment of brilliance. If Newcastle can get Ponga into broken-field situations, he has the speed and footwork to cause the Roosters enormous problems.
Outside him, Newcastle possess plenty of power. Dominic Young and Greg Marzhew are enormous wingers, while Dane Gagai and Bradman Best give them experience and attacking punch through the centres. Best was superb against Penrith, running for 185 metres, breaking three tackles and making 29 tackles himself. That performance is particularly encouraging because Best will have a huge defensive assignment against the Roosters lethal right edge.
Fletcher Sharpe, the young five-eighth has become an increasingly important part of Newcastle's attack and will need to combine with Ponga and Sandon Smith to create opportunities.
But the biggest team-news story is at dummy-half after the horror accident last weekend on Nathan Cleary. Newcastle will be without Phoenix Crossland after he received a four-match suspension for the hip-drop tackle on Nathan Cleary. Crossland was one of the Knights most important players throughout the season and his absence creates a significant change to the way Newcastle will operate around the ruck. Harrison Graham is expected to step into the No.9 role. The Knights have also added Diesel Hagan to their extended squad who is a specialist hooker.
Odds
Roosters rightly start as favourites, $1.44 to $2.90, the line is 8.5 points and combined points 43.5
The Betting Verdict
It all comes down to this. After 27 rounds of regular-season football and three extraordinary weeks of finals, the Sydney Roosters and Newcastle Knights meet at Accor Stadium on Sunday night for the 2026 NRL Premiership. Kick-off is 7:30pm AEDT, with the biggest prize in rugby league waiting at the end of 80 minutes, and what a Grand Final this is.
Newcastle's extraordinary run continued with the 22–14 win over Penrith, while the Roosters powered past the Dolphins 36–20. It sets up one of the most unexpected deciders in recent NRL history: last year's wooden-spooners Newcastle against a Roosters side playing its first Grand Final since 2019.
On one side are the Roosters - one of the NRL's traditional heavyweights, appearing in their 31st Grand Final and chasing their 16th premiership. On the other are the Knights, who finished with the wooden spoon in 2025 and have somehow turned that into a Grand Final appearance just 12 months later. Newcastle are playing in their first decider since their 2001 premiership and are chasing the club's third ever title.
The Knights have got to this position the hard way, having to win three consecutive sudden-death finals to get here. They beat South Sydney 20–10, then travelled to Eden Park and stunned the Warriors 12–10 before producing one of the most remarkable results of the season against Penrith. The Knights trailed the Panthers 14–6 at half-time and were down to 12 men following Phoenix Crossland's send-off, yet somehow produced three second-half tries to win 22–14.
The Roosters have taken a different route. They lost their qualifying final to Penrith 19–12, but bounced back spectacularly. Dismantling Cronulla 46–10 before travelling to Suncorp Stadium and ending the Dolphins remarkable season with a convincing 36–20 victory. Daly Cherry-Evans is playing the final NRL game of his career, one which could send him out with his second ever title. The veteran halfback will finish his career on rugby league's biggest stage, alongside Sam Walker in a halves combination that has suddenly become one of the most intriguing attacking partnerships in the competition.
The Biggest Battle - Cherry-Evans v Ponga. There are plenty of individual battles worth watching, but this is the one I keep coming back to. Daly Cherry-Evans and Kalyn Ponga represent two completely different ways of influencing a Grand Final. Cherry-Evans is about control and Ponga is about explosion. If the Roosters are winning territory and forcing Newcastle to start sets deep inside their own half, Cherry-Evans becomes enormously influential. If Newcastle are getting front-foot ball and Ponga is receiving possession around the Roosters 20-metre line, the equation changes dramatically.
Sam Walker is coming off a stunning return from injury and now has the opportunity to play in an NRL Grand Final. He is up against a Roosters outcast, Sandon Smith is playing the biggest game of his career after producing arguably the defining individual performance of the Knights finals campaign. The player who handles the pressure better could have a huge influence on the result.
The Roosters have shown that they can generate enormous metres through Nawaqanitawase, while Newcastle will look for Marzhew and Dominic Young to turn field position into attacking opportunities.
Then we have the Forward Battle. This is where the Grand Final could become a war. The Roosters have Whyte, Collins, Robson and Radley, with Crichton and Leniu coming from the bench. Newcastle have Tyson Frizell, Cody Hopwood, Mathew Croker and Jermaine McEwen. The Roosters have the advantage in experience, that is clear, however the Knights have the advantage of desperation and the belief that has carried them through three sudden-death games. If the Roosters dominate the middle, I expect the Grand Final to become very difficult for Newcastle.
These teams have met twice in 2026 and Newcastle were competitive from a scoreline perspective. The Roosters won 38–24 and 23–22. Overall H2H is clearly in favour of the Roosters 37-14, while the ground stats are slightly in favour of Newcastle, Roosters 29-32 to Newcastle 17-17.
That makes the +8.5 line particularly interesting.
This is where the Grand Final becomes fascinating. If you look purely at the season's overall records and the two regular-season meetings, the Roosters have plenty going for them. They have beaten Newcastle twice, and much more experienced Grand Final spine. They have Daly Cherry-Evans playing his final NRL game, which they will want to send out on a high too. They also have some incredible players - James Tedesco, Sam Walker and more and they have just scored 82 points in their past two matches played.
But Newcastle have something that cannot be measured purely through statistics. Belief. They have spent the past three weeks playing elimination football and finding a way to survive. Against South Sydney, they defended their hearts out with most people thinking they were likely out in the first week. Against the Warriors, they held their nerve against a much more fancied team and a huge local crowd. Against Penrith, they came back from eight points down while playing with 12 men. That experience could prove incredibly valuable, the question is whether they have enough left in the tank as this will be their fourth consecutive must-win game.
The loss of Crossland could be the biggest factor and i think this is potentially the biggest selection issue of the Grand Final. Crossland was central to Newcastle's defensive organisation and ruck control. Graham has done a superb job stepping in, but starting an NRL Grand Final at hooker against Reece Robson is an enormous assignment.
I expect the Knights to stay in the contest for a long time. The Roosters will probably have the better field position, but Newcastle will have opportunities through Ponga and Best and as with all Grand Finals it will come down to one or 2 moments and whoever wins those takes the bug proze.
I expect Sydney to win, but Newcastle have demonstrated repeatedly that they can stay in games. Both regular-season meetings were close enough, and their defensive performances throughout the finals suggest they are unlikely to simply be blown away.
The Roosters have the experience, the momentum and the stronger-established spine. I think the first half could be extremely tight. Newcastle have conceded only 42 points across their three finals, and I expect them to make Sydney work extremely hard for every point. But after the break, I expect the Roosters experience to become increasingly important. Sydney should be able to control possession, generate field position and force Newcastle to make more defensive decisions.
First try scorer Toia (Roosters) $11.00
Safer option: Roosters head-to-head @ $1.41
Roosters win by around 6–10 points.
The Pick :
Roosters 22 — Knights 14
