NFL Football
2011-10-02 - Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 4
Sunday 2 October 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
Now if someone had told me that these two NFC teams would be meeting one another and one would still be unbeaten, I would most likely have picked the Dallas Cowboys (2-1) to be that team. However, it is the popular 'dark horse' pick of the preseason, the Detroit Lions (3-0) that remain one of three teams yet to lose a game.
After a long period of uselessness, the Lions have slowly built a really good team and have a chance for their best start in 55 years if they can grab another W from Dallas.
Last week, Detroit showed they are not just good to watch, but they have a resilience and character about them that has been lacking for so long as they came from 20-0 down at half time to beat Divisional rival Minnesota on the road.
Calvin Johnson has been considered one of the best receivers in the game for the last couple of seasons, but even his output is increased when a QB of the calibre of Matt Stafford in under Center. These two players have already combined for 6 TDs in the opening 3 weeks of the season, and Johnson is the first player in NFL history to have 2 TDs per game in the opening 3 games of the season.
Stafford will need better protection from the Offensive Line against a Dallas Defense that has recorded 13 sacks already this season. DeMarcus Ware has been unblockable and you just know a Rob Ryan Defense is going to try and rush Stafford as much as possible. Dallas really made life difficult for Washington last week, but Stafford is a much better QB than Rex Grossman.
The problem for Dallas will be in the Secondary where Mike Jenkins and Terrance Newman will look to keep Johnson in check, while I expect Brandon Pettigrew to have a big game in the middle of the field.
Detroit are capable of putting up a number of points so it will be up to the Dallas Offense to keep up after a disappointing performance full of errors in the win over Washington. Phil Costa (C) had a particular performance to forget as he snapped the ball before Tony Romo was ready on FOUR occasions last week.
The Offensive Line is young and they are going to have a lot of trouble with a Detroit Defense that is creating plenty of penetration into the backfield. That means Tony Romo is going to have to get rid of the ball quickly, but he is working with a young receiving corps that were running the long routes last week and have a short field to correct their mental errors.
Dez Bryant should be good to go, but he is clearly feeling his injury while Miles Austin is out until after their bye week next week.
Head to Head
Dallas have won the last 2 meetings with Detroit, including here last season when they won by 16 points.
That is the 2nd straight win for Dallas in the series, and they are now 5-2 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series.
Dallas are 3-1, both straight up and against the spread, in the last 4 home games against Detroit.
Dallas are 1-1-1 against the spread this season, Detroit are 2-0-1.
Other Interesting Notes
Dallas are 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games as the home favourite.
Dallas are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.
The Cowboys are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games after playing Monday Night Football since 2007.
Detroit are 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.
They are 12-3-2 against the spread in their last 17 games against teams from the NFC.
The Lions are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road underdog.
83% of the wagers made in Vegas are favouring the Detroit Lions.
Prediction
I really like the Lions in this spot for the following reasons:
First, the Detroit Defense is going to get after Tony Romo and will make it hard for the Offensive Line to give their QB time to throw. They will also stop the running lanes so it could be tough for Dallas to move the chains with consistency.
Second, I struggle to think the Cowboys will be able to contain Calvin Johnson and I like the Lions against this Defense. Detroit are the best Offense the Cowboys will have faced so far this season and I think they have too many weapons.
Third, the Lions had a confidence building win against the Vikings last week, and that will have them knowing they are capable of coming back from any deficit.
Fourth, Dallas are on a short week and will not be able to correct all the issues that affected their Offense last week.
My biggest concern for Detroit is they are playing back to back road games which is always a tough ask in the NFL, but they are given a couple of points and their Offense looks too good to be kept up with by Dallas. Paddy Power are the standouts for this pick.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Dallas Cowboys 20-24 Detroit Lions
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Detroit Lions +2.5 Points @ 1.92
