Georgia Bulldogs at Florida Gators Betting pick | 2011-10-29

NCAA Football

2011-10-29 - Georgia Bulldogs at Florida Gators

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Oklahoma Sooners @ Kansas State Wildcats
United States: NCAA Football Week 9
Saturday 29 October 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

This is a big SEC East game this week, with the Florida Gators (4-3) looking to knock off their old rivals the Georgia Bulldogs (5-2) and put them in a tough spot to win this Division and damage their chances of playing in the SEC Championship game. The Bulldogs are 4-1 in Conference play this season, while Florida have struggled to a 2-3 Conference record with 3 straight defeats.

It is also a good time to say that this game will be played in Florida, though not in Gainesville but Jacksonville. That has never taken away from the rivalry between the team with the Bulldogs openly admitting this is the game the fans want to win more than any other on the season.

Georgia do have one of the most powerful Offenses in the nation, but they are going to have a tough time against a pretty stout Florida Defense. The Gators gave Auburn a really hard time in their last outing, but it was their Offense that let them down in a tight game and they are bound to make life a little difficult for the Bulldogs.

It will be tough to run on this Gator Defense, and the Bulldogs have not had it easy running the ball in their games so far this season. This means there will be more expectations on QB Aaron Murray who is having a pretty good season, throwing 16 TD passes and 7 Interceptions, while completing 60% of his passes. This is another area where the Gators Defense has excelled this season, while they can also generate a pass rush that will make it tough for Murray if he is left in 3rd and long situations.

After a pretty inept performance by the Offense against Auburn, the Florida Gators got some good news during their bye week that John Brantley (QB) is likely to be back under Center for this game having missed a couple of games with an ankle injury. Jeff Demps (RB) is another that could return this weekend, although his status is set as questionable.

It is a tough spot for Brantley to come back, especially if he is still having some issues with his ankle as the Bulldogs have a very good pass rush that should give the Florida Offensive Line problems and make the QB move around in the pocket. They have also been very opportunistic through the air, picking up 11 Interceptions while giving away just 6 passing TDs.

That means Florida will look to help move the chains with their running game, but that really has been the strength of the Georgia Defense so far this season, allowing just over 100 yards per game at 3.2 yards per carry.

Georgia are dealing with a few key injuries to the team, the most notable being Malcolm Mitchell (WR), who has been listed as doubtful. Mitchell had been leading receiver and has 3 TDs on the season. Shawn Williams (SS) and Kwame Geathers (NT) have both been suspended for the first half of this game for fouls in the last game against Vanderbilt.

Head to Head

The Florida Gators have won the last 3 games in the series, both straight up and against the spread, including a overtime win last season when just withstanding a Bulldogs second half fightback.

Georgia last won in 2007 with Matt Stafford at QB, but Florida have dominated the series of late.

Florida are 9-4 against the spread in the last 13 games in the series.

The favourite is 5-2 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series.

Florida are 3-3-1 against the spread, while Georgia are 4-3.

Other Interesting Trends

Georgia are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games on a neutral site.

They have lost their last 4 games against the spread coming off a bye week.

They are 7-19 against the spread in their last 26 games against a team with a winning record.

The Bulldogs are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the favourites.

Florida are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games on a neutral site.

They have won their last 5 games against the spread following a bye week.

They are 2-8-1 against the spread in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record.

The Gators are just 1-4-1 against the spread in their last 6 games in Conference play.

Prediction

I have been waiting for the line to move for most of the latter part of this week and am finally ready to commit my money to Georgia winning this game for the following reasons:

First, I feel the Bulldogs have the more reliable QB in this game and I think John Brantley is in for a tough day against a speedy Georgia Defense that will get after him.

Second, I think the Georgia Defense is more capable of making the big plays, ie turnovers, than their Florida counterparts and that could end up being the difference between winning and losing.

Third, if the Bulldogs get ahead by a couple of scores, this could be a vicious cycle for the Florida Offense who will be forced to throw to get back into the game, providing more opportunities for the Bulldogs to create short fields for their own Offense.

I wasn't that comfortable taking the 3 points earlier in the week, because this could be as close as a field goal, but now the spread has moved back down to 2.5 points, I feel much better taking the Bulldogs.