NFL Football
2011-11-06 - Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 9
Sunday 6 November 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Miami Dolphins (0-7) have come close to winning games in the last 2 weeks, but they remain one of only two teams that have yet to win on the year. Tony Sparano looks like a 'dead man walking' as Head Coach, while the team is busy blaming one another rather than getting on with what they are paid (a lot) to do. They face a Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) team that has bounced back from losing their first 3 games of the season to be one of the joint leaders of the AFC West, a Division they won a year ago.
The Dolphins somehow blew a 15-0 lead with 3 minutes left against a Denver team with Tim Tebow as QB, an occurrence that is even harder to explain considering how Tebow played against Detroit last week. They then followed that with a decent performance at the New York Giants, but were again short as they lost by 3 points on the road.
Back to back road games are never easy, especially as the Dolphins are coming up against a Defense that has really picked up the slack in recent games following the loss of Eric Berry earlier this year. Miami have failed to throw the ball with any consistency this season, while their Offensive Line have really struggled to protect the QB. Matt Moore can at least scramble away from the rush, but I still expect the Chiefs will find pressure on him.
Reggie Bush will be given the load in the backfield to try and slow down the pass rush and should find a few lanes as the Chiefs are allowing 4.1 yards per carry on the ground, but that has increased in the last couple of games to almost 5 yards per carry.
Kansas City will have to try and get refocused for this game after earning an improbable win over San Diego on Monday Night Football, but they will have the benefit of not having to travel on this short week. Matt Cassel is fully healthy at the QB position and he has some big time playmakers in the form of Dwayne Bowe, Steve Breaston and Jon Baldwin, and I expect they will all get chances against a surprisingly weak Dolphins Secondary.
Vontae Davis will be back in the line up for the Dolphins, a big upgrade at Corner, but they have struggled to get a consistent pass rush, and Cassel may have the time to take advantage of his 3 big receivers.
The Chiefs are still a run first Offense, even without Jamaal Charles, but that will not be that effective against a Miami Defense that allows 3.9 yards per carry.
Head to Head
Miami beat Kansas City here by 7 points when they last met in 2008, that game being at Arrowhead and the Dolphins also covered the spread as the 3.5 point favourites.
The Dolphins have won 2 in a row in the series, both straight up and against the spread, but they had lost the previous 2 games.
The favourite is 4-1-1 against the spread in the last 6 games in the series.
Kansas City are 5-2 against the spread this season, Miami are 1-5-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Kansas City are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points. They are 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games on a Sunday following a Monday night game.
Miami are 1-3-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog. They are 3-12 against the spread in their last 15 games following a loss of 6 points or less.
They are 1-8-1 against the spread in their last 10 games.
Prediction
I am going to back the Kansas City Chiefs to reverse recent trends here for the following reasons:
First, the Dolphins have taken two heartbreaking losses in consecutive weeks and must be feeling a little sorry for themselves as they should truly have won at least one of those games.
Second, the Chiefs have been playing a lot better of late and have plenty of receiving options that could cause Miami a few problems on Defense.
Third, I feel Kansas City are the better team and are deserving of being more than a 1 point favourite on a neutral field in the teams played one another and believe the spread should have been closer to 6.5 points here.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Kansas City Chiefs 24-17 Miami Dolphins
