NFL Football
2011-11-13 - Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 10
Sunday 13 November 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) must have felt sick to their stomach losing last weekend to their rivals the Baltimore Ravens with just 8 seconds left on the clock, meaning this game has become even more important to the SuperBowl runner ups from last season. It has become more important as the Steelers have been swept by the Ravens this season, and do not want to fall further behind as they visit Ohio to take on the surprising Cincinnati Bengals (6-2).
Cincinnati have been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season, and their record means they would actually be the Number 1 seed in the AFC if the Play Offs were starting tomorrow. However, they still have 4 games with the Steelers and Ravens to negotiate in the 2nd half of the season, although this would be a big statement if they can pull the win.
Andy Dalton looked pretty bad in the pre-season games I saw him in, but he has looked composed and very comfortable in games in the regular season as he has built a real chemistry with fellow rookie AJ Green as well as Jerome Simpson. This week we will get to see how far Dalton has progressed as he faces a Steeler Defense that has allowed under 200 passing yards per game, and one that will want to make a point after giving up a late TD to lose last weekend.
James Farrior looks like he will be playing this week, although the Steelers will continue to miss LaMarr Woodley. James Harrison returned last week and provided a very effective pass rush, although the Bengals have done a decent enough job in protecting Dalton so far.
Cincinnati will also look to establish Cedric Benson and the running game against the Steelers who have not defended the run that well this season, allowing 4.2 yards per carry. If the Bengals can get something going on the ground, they will help Dalton by slowing down the pass rush and also giving him short and manageable situations.
While Dalton's play has been effective in giving the Bengals a chance to win games, it is the Defense that has been playing at a very high level that has been closing wins down. Pittsburgh are no longer a run first team, but that could be a good thing as Cincinnati have allowed just 3.3 yards per carry on the ground this season and under 85 team yards on the ground.
That means it is likely much of the pressure of moving the chains are going to be on Ben Roethlisberger's shoulders, but he is more than capable of doing so considering the Offensive Line is playing a lot better and giving him time to find his quick receivers. After struggling at the start of the season, Roethlisberger has been sacked 2 times or fewer in 4 of the last 5 games they have played, although the Bengals, who have 20 sacks this season, are going to test them out.
Cincinnati's Secondary have also played well, even though they lost Jonathan Joseph in the off-season, but this will be a big test for them against playmakers like Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown who can use speed to find space down the field.
Head to Head
Pittsburgh are 7-2 straight up in the last 9 games in the series against Cincinnati, although both defeats only came in 2009.
Last season, the Steelers swept the Bengals including a 6 point win here in Cincinnati.
The Steelers are 8-1-1 against the spread in the last 10 games in the series played in Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh are 7-2 against the spread in the last 9 games in the series.
Cincinnati are 7-1 against the spread this season, Pittsburgh 4-5.
Other Interesting Trends
Cincinnati are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points. They have won their last 9 games against the spread against teams in the NFC.
Pittsburgh are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 road games, however, they have won their last 6 games against the spread following a straight up loss.
The Steelers are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games against teams from the AFC North.
Prediction
I like Pittsburgh to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Steelers should be fired up in the way they lost the game against the Ravens last week and they will also be well aware that they cannot afford to drop another Divisional game after being swept by Baltimore.
Second, I think this is the biggest test Cincinnati have faced this season, on both sides of the ball, and I am not entirely convinced they are ready at this level, even if they are vastly better than I though they were going to be.
Third, the Steelers can put in their all for this game with a bye week on the horizon and Mike Tomlin will have the team fully prepared to put everything on the line to secure the win. Cincinnati face Baltimore next in a game to see which team takes the lead in the AFC North.
I have a lot of respect for what the Bengals have achieved so far this season, but they have not faced a team like the Steelers, and it will be all the tougher as Pittsburgh should be angry and focused after th second of two losses to Baltimore.
It will be tight for a while, but I think the Steelers can make enough plays to win the game and I am taking this now before the spread moves to 3.5 points everywhere. The odds are obviously not as big as the layers who have put the 3.5 points out, but I feel it is better having the safety of the FG on our side at 1.83 at BetFred/Coral.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Cincinnati Bengals 17-23 Pittsburgh Steelers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Pittsburgh Steelers -3 Points @ 1.83
