Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting pick | 2011-11-13

NFL Football

2011-11-13 - Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Houston Texans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
United States: NFL Football Week 10
Sunday 13 November 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

The Houston Texans (6-3) stumbled slightly as the expectations were raised in this part of Texas by the fans who felt the AFC South was up for grabs this season and a chance for this franchise to make their first appearance in the post-season. They have since shown their mettle in recent games as they prepare to visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4), a team trying to keep up with the leaders of the NFC South.

Houston have won their last 3 games, including 2 big Divisional ones, to take complete control of their Division, but they will not want to lose any momentum this week. The Defense is vastly improved thanks to Wade Phillips, while the Offense continues to roll without their star receiver Andre Johnson- Johnson will be missing again this week as the Texans give him additional time to get healthy with a bye week coming up next week.

While they may be missing their best player on the Offensive side of the ball, Houston do face a Tampa Bay Defense shorn of Gerald McCoy for the season which seriously limits their run Defense. The Buccaneers have allowed almost 5 yards per carry on the ground this season, and now face Ben Tate and Arian Foster who have been ripping off big chunks in recent games. Albert Haynesworth has been brought in to shore up this Defense, but I find it hard to think Tampa Bay has enough success against the run with recent opponents regularly reaching 175 rushing yards.

With the running game working effectively, Matt Schaub has not really needed to miss Andre Johnson as he is dealing with short and manageable situations. He still has some talent in the receiving corps with Kevin Walter and Owen Daniels picking up the slack and I expect the Texans will be able to move the chains effectively.

Tampa Bay have lost 3 of their last 4 games and are trying to re-establish their identity as Josh Freeman has struggled after an effective and efficient 2010. LeGarrette Blount will try and help Freeman out but faces a Houston Defense that has been holding teams against the run in recent games, keeping their last 3 opponents to 70 yards or less as a team. If they can get that going again, it will mean Freeman is under more pressure to keep things ticking over with his arm.

That won't be easy against this Defense that was upgraded by bringing in Jonathan Joseph to shore up a porous Secondary. Joseph is one of the best Corners in the NFL and it is no surprise to see that they have allowed less than 185 yards per game through the air. Houston lost the pass rush produced by Mario Williams, but that could have unearthed a star in Brook Reed, a player that has 4 sacks on his own in the last 3 games.

Head to Head

Tampa Bay and Houston have only ever met 2 times previously, with both teams winning, and covering the spread, in their home game.

Tampa Bay are 3-5 against the spread this season, Houston are 5-3-1.

Other Interesting Trends

Tampa Bay are 12-5 against the spread in their last 17 games as the home underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points. However, they are just 3-14 against the spread in their last 17 games as the home underdog.

Houston are 2-6-1 against the spread in their last 9 games following a straight up win.

Prediction

I have to like Houston to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, Josh Freeman has not been efficient with the ball all season for Tampa Bay and he is going to have a tough time getting things going against this Defense that has restricted teams on the ground and are likely to leave the QB to convert from long situations against a fierce pass rush.

Second, Houston should be able to move the chains consistently with their ground game which should open up the passing lane for deep passes and quick score opportunities.

Third, the Texans are playing the better football right now and will not want to give other teams in the AFC South a chance to get back into the Divisional race.

Fourth, Tampa Bay have struggled at home under Raheem Morris in the last couple of seasons.

The Statistics :

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-10-23	L	18-24	H v Chicago Bears
	2011-10-16	W	26-20	H v New Orleans Saints
	2011-10-03	W	24-17	H v Indianapolis Colts
	2011-09-25	W	16-13	H v Atlanta Falcons
	2011-09-11	L	20-27	H v Detroit Lions
	2010-12-26	W	38-15	H v Seattle Seahawks

HOUSTON TEXANS LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-10-23	W	7-41	A v Tennessee Titans
	2011-10-16	L	29-14	A v Baltimore Ravens
	2011-09-25	L	40-33	A v New Orleans Saints
	2011-09-18	W	13-23	A v Miami Dolphins
	2010-12-26	L	24-23	A v Denver Broncos
	2010-12-19	L	31-17	A v Tennessee Titans