NBA Basketball
2012-01-05 - LA Lakers at Portland
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Thursday 5 January 2012 - Tip Off 10:30pm ET
3:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Portland Trail Blazers (4-1) look like they have a roster that is capable of challenging the best teams in the Western Conference, particularly when they are hosting them at the loud and boisterous Rose Garden.
The loss of Brandon Roy to retirement was bound to have an effect on the team, but they have found a way to cover his absence, while they have a couple of really top players in LaMarcus Aldridge and Gerald Wallace.
Portland had an impressive win at Oklahoma City Thunder last time out, and they are basing most of their success on an efficient defensive scheme that has seen opponents score an average of 94 points per game against them this season, while shooting at less than 27% from the 3 point range.
It will be interesting to see how the Trail Blazers cope with a fired up Andrew Bynum and the LA Lakers (4-3), a team that has won 4 of their last 5 contests coming into this one.
While Kobe Bryant remains the focal point of the Lakers offense, it is Bynum who has taken the plaudits despite the on-going trade rumours regarding his future. Bynum has averaged 22 points and 17 rebounds per game in the 3 contests he has played this season after serving a suspension following a hard hit in the Play Off loss to Dallas last season. This is the kind of production people have always expected from the big man, but injuries have curtailed his progress yet he is going to provide a big test for the defensive capabilities of Marcus Camby and the Trail Blazers.
Head to Head
The LA Lakers went 3-1 against Portland in the regular season last year, although they split the games 2-2 against the spread.
LA have actually won 2 of the last 3 games played at the Rose Garden, both straight up and against the spread, but they had a horrific record here before that.
Portland had won 9 in a row at home against the Lakers before that, going 8-0-1 against the spread in those games.
Portland are 15-5 against the spread in the last 20 games in the series, including winning the last 2.
Portland are 3-2 against the spread this season, LA are 4-3.
The Trail Blazers are 2-1 against the spread when considered the favourite, the Lakers are 1-1 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
Portland are 9-4-2 against the spread in their last 15 games as the home favourite.
However, they are just 1-4-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home favourite of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
The LA Lakers are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games as the road underdog being given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games against teams from the Western Conference.
Prediction
I am going to back the Portland Trail Blazers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Portland have an exceptional home record against the Lakers in recent games in the series, despite losing 2 of 3, and the fans seem to pump up the players for the game against their more illustrious opponents.
Second, the Trail Blazers are playing well on both sides of the ball and it could be tough for the Lakers to keep up.
Third, the Lakers have a poor 3-7 record against the spread when playing the first of back to back games.
The Pick :
Portland 100-94 LA Lakers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 Points @ 1.95