NBA Basketball
2012-04-29 - Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off First Round
Sunday 29 April 2012 - Tip Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The First Round meeting between the San Antonio Spurs (50-16) and the Utah Jazz (36-30) looks to be a mismatch in favour of the Number 1 seeded Spurs, but they have to remember this time last year when they were beaten in this position by the Memphis Grizzlies at the same stage of the Play Offs.
It was a worry for San Antonio that the shortened lock-out season was going to have a real negative effect on the older stars San Antonio have, but Gregg Popovich has managed to rest the likes of Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili over the course of the season, while also giving some of the fringe players real playing time.
That has given San Antonio a lot of depth in their rotation which makes them an even more dangerous proposition than they were a year ago.
The Spurs also have the best home record in the NBA (along with Miami) and they will look to ride a big streak of scoring points into this Play Off season.
Utah, on the other hand, have a young inexperience line up that will only improve for the future with this Play Off series behind them. Just a year removed from trading away Deron Williams, the Jazz are a surprise team in the Western Conference Play Off picture, with the likes of Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap and Derrick Favors giving plenty of size in their rotation.
Josh Howard is also back from injury and he is one of the few players in this Jazz team that has some experience- Howard may also be given a starting berth for this first game.
Head to Head
The San Antonio Spurs won the season series between the teams 3-1 this season, their one defeat coming in a home and home duo when they gave some of their big players a rest in the second of those games.
San Antonio have won their last 3 home games against Utah, although they are 1-1-1 against the spread in those games.
San Antonio are 4-2-1 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series.
The Spurs are 24-8-1 against the spread at home this season, Utah are 14-18-1 away from home.
The Spurs are 34-15-4 against the spread as the favourite, Utah are 17-17-2 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
San Antonio have won their last 11 games against the spread as the home favourite of 11 points or more.
They are 12-3-2 against the spread in the last 17 games against a team with a winning record of less than 40% on the road.
Utah are 4-0-1 against the spread in the last 5 games against a team with a winning record at home.
Prediction
I am going to back the San Antonio Spurs to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, San Antonio are coming into these Play Offs on an absolute tear, winning their last 10 games, going 9-0-1 against the spread, and scoring at least 105 points in each of those games.
Second, the Spurs are 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 games against a team with a winning record straight up.
Third, San Antonio had dominated the season series between the teams, and have won each home game by double-digits.
The Pick :
San Antonio Spurs 113-100 Utah Jazz
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the San Antonio Spurs - 11 Points @ 1.95
