NBA Basketball
2012-04-29 - LA Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off First Round
Sunday 29 April 2012 - Tip Off 9:30pm ET
2:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
This looks like the closest, and potentially the best, First Round series in either Conference as the Memphis Grizzlies (41-25) get ready to host the LA Clippers (40-26) in the first game.
The Clippers had control of winning home court advantage, but a couple of defeats down the stretch allowed the Grizzlies to overtake them, but I don't think either of these teams will care as they are so closely matched.
Memphis have won their last 11 games at home and they have finished the regular season with a 26-7 record here. However, this is a reversal of the expectations coming into the Play Offs from last season when the Memphis team were expected to be rolled by the San Antonio Spurs in the First Round. They won that series, but now they are expected to the same to an inexperienced LA Clippers team.
However, the Clippers have one of the younger, more vibrant teams in the NBA, with the likes of Blake Griffin, Randy Foye and Chris Paul in the line up. The latter of those three has been in the Play Offs before in his time with the New Orleans Hornets and he will need to help out with his experience, especially in the absence of Chauncey Billups.
Turnovers are going to be the key to the entire series, with Memphis leading the way on that front in the NBA, but the Clippers are also capable of getting those going and that could be the difference in what looks a ridiculously close series to call.
Head to Head
The LA Clippers won the season series between the teams 2-1, with both teams winning their home games.
Memphis are 4-1 in the last 5 games in the series at home, going 3-2 against the spread in those games.
It is clear these teams are fairly evenly matched as they have split the last 10 games in the series 5-5 against the spread.
Memphis are 16-17 against the spread at home this season, LA are 16-16-1 on the road.
Memphis are 17-23 against the spread as the favourite, LA are 12-11 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
Memphis are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games as the home favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.
LA are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road underdog given between 5 and 10.5 points.
Prediction
I am going to back the LA Clippers to cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, I think these teams are really closely matched as shown by their season records, so the 5.5 point head start is a nice place to be with the LA Clippers.
Second, Memphis are not really a team that will blow out an opponent, while they won't be blown out too often either, so again the 5.5 points could look a lot at the end of the game.
Third, Memphis are under a different sort of pressure compared with a year ago as the underdog in the series with the San Antonio Spurs. They don't have a lot of experience of Play Off games in this position, so it will be interesting to see how they handle that.
Fourth, the Grizzlies are just 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 games overall.
The Pick :
Memphis Grizzlies 96-93 LA Clippers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the LA Clippers + 5.5 Points @ 1.95
