NBA Basketball
2012-05-01 - Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off First Round
Tuesday 1 May 2012 - Tip Off 7:30pm ET
12:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Boston Celtics came out lethargic in the first game of the series and it was no surprise to see that they are 1-0 down to the Atlanta Hawks. These two teams are closely matched and stealing home court advantage has to be the key for the Boston Celtics, although that is going to be tough with the loss of Rajon Rondo tonight.
Rondo has been suspended for this game after chest-bumping an official in the first game and being ejected with a double technical in that game. Some consider it a surprise that Rondo was not suspended for longer, although it did look like he had tripped into the referee, but having been suspended for a similar thing earlier this season means a 'repeat offender' is usually given a harsher penalty the second time around.
The absence of Rondo will have an effect on the Celtics after he scored 20 points and dished out 11 dimes in the first game, but I do expect the likes of Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to have much more influential games in this one.
Avery Bradley will be given the Point Guard position in this one, but the second Guard position is still in the air as Ray Allen looks set to miss another game. Allen has been set as a game time decision, but Doc Rivers has made it clear he will not jeopardise his player's health at any point this year.
Atlanta also have some injury problems as it looks like Jason Collins will be given the start at Center in the absence of Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia, although the latter is still a game time decision.
They will hope they can get a better game out of Joe Johnson who struggled to 11 points in the first game and that should hopefully relieve some of the expectations on Josh Smith's shoulders after he had 22 points and 18 rebounds in game 1.
Head to Head
Atlanta's win in game 1 means they have won the last 2 games in the season series, squaring it at 2-2 for the 2012 year.
The Hawks have hosted 3 of the games, going 2-1 straight up but 1-2 against the spread in those games.
Boston are now 4-3 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series overall.
Other Interesting Trends
Atlanta are now 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home favourite of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
Boston are 7-3-1 against the spread in their last 11 games on the road.
They are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last 7 games after a straight up loss.
Prediction
I am going to back the Boston Celtics to cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, teams can certainly rally together when put under the cosh as the Celtics have been tonight with the suspension of Rajon Rondo and I expect them to circle the wagons and find a way to keep this close.
Second, Atlanta have been known for putting in a weak performance when expected to be in a position of strength and they are the kind of team that will lose focus when their opponents are weakened.
The Pick :
Atlanta Hawks 82-80 Boston Celtics
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Boston Celtics + 4.5 Points @ 1.95
