NBA Basketball
2012-05-09 - New York Knicks at Miami Heat
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off First Round
Wednesday 9 May 2012 - Tip Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)
Preview
It is a little bit of a surprise to see this series going into a fifth game after the Miami Heat had totally dominated the the New York Knicks in the first three games and then blew double-digit leads, twice, in the fourth game before falling by a couple of points. I see this game being an irritant to the Heat who should really be resting up for the Indiana Pacers, but I also expect a professional performance in this one.
It was a botched play from Dwyane Wade at the end of regulation that cost the Heat the victory, but there were plenty of other issues throughout game 4 that they will look to rectify. They missed 11 free throws and also 16 three pointer attempts in the loss, while allowing the Knicks to keep coming back so the Miami players should be fully ready for this one.
Carmelo Anthony was the star of the show for the Knicks in the last game as he sunk 41 points, while the return of Amare Stoudemire was a boost for the team. However, it seems the team is cursed with bad luck as Baron Davis suffered a devastating knee injury in that game which is going to keep him sidelined for one year.
Davis joins Iman Shumpert and Jeremy Lin as the Knicks are left short-handed for the rest of the series, regardless of how long it lasts. It looks like Mike Bibby will be given the start at Point Guard, with JR Smith backing him up off the bench.
With the way Anthony went off in game 4, I expect Eric Spoelstra to make the necessary adjustments and would be more than a little surprised if LeBron James is not given the bulk of the defensive duties on the Knicks' main scoring threat.
Head to Head
The Knicks win in game 4 means they are now 1-5 against the Miami Heat this season, both straight up and against the spread.
Miami are 8-1 in their last 9 home games against New York, while they have also won the last 3 here against the spread.
The Heat have won their last 4 home games against New York by double-digits.
Other Interesting Trends
Miami are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 home games as the favourite.
New York are just 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games against a team that has won at least 60% of their home games.
Prediction
I am going to back the Miami Heat to complete the gentleman's sweep tonight and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, they have dominated the Knicks in the series and will be absolutely focused after a lacklustre performance in game 4 to complete the series win and focus on Indiana.
Second, the Heat have won their last 4 home games against the Knicks by double-digits and I expect they will have wanted to put this game away before we get to the final stretch.
Third, the injuries New York have suffered has left them short-handed so they won't have an edge off the bench and the Heat are the better team.
The Pick :
Miami Heat 104-90 New York Knicks
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Miami Heat -11 Points @ 2.00
