Euro 2012
2012-06-23 - Spain vs France
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: Euro 2012 Quarter Final
Saturday 23 June 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Preview
This is the tie of the round if you consider that these two nations were among the leading contenders for the title before the tournament began, although I am sure there are a number of English and Italian fans out there that will think the 'big one' is to come tomorrow night.
Spain qualified as the top team of Group C thanks to a late winner against Croatia in their final game- without that goal, it would have been the Italians who won the Group and Spain coming in as second. They have received a few criticisms, not the norm for Spain, and some have even described their style as 'boring'.
Some would even say they were a little fortunate as Croatia had a couple of huge chances to take the lead in their game with Spain, a lead that would have seen them leapfrog the favourites for that time and also have seen Spain exiting the tournament before the knock out ties.
The Spanish also struggled in their opener against Italy in a game that was eventually drawn 1-1, although they did crush the poor Republic of Ireland side 4-0.
The big decision that is expected to be made by Vicente Del Bosque is whether he restores Cesc Fabregas to the side and resorts to the 4-6-0 system he started the tournament or whether he will pick Fernando Torres to lead the line.
However, unlike the French, the Spain team and squad are united with the common goals they want to reach. France, on the other hand, were rumoured to have had another squad implosion after losing 2-0 to Sweden in their final Group game that saw them finish behind England and have to face the favourites instead of Italy in the Quarter Finals.
France had looked like a decent team in their first two games as they draw with England 1-1 and then comfortably saw off Ukraine 0-2 in their second game. They were living up to the 'dark horse' tag they had been given before the tournament began, but then that horrible performance against Sweden occurred and the questions have once again been raised about their unity and chances for success.
Laurent Blanc has made it clear that his side need to defend effectively if they have any chance of progressing through to the Semi Final against Portugal. There are suggestions that France will take a very cautious approach to this game in a bid to sucker-punch Spain out of the tournament.
However, they will be missing Philippe Mexes who is suspended and he will be replaced by Laurent Koscielny. The likes of Yohan Cabaye and Jeremy Menez will also look to be restored to the side, while Samir Nasri and Franck Ribery will be passed fit to take their places.
Head to Head
Spain have never beaten France in a competitive game, the last of those coming in the World Cup of 2006 as France overturned a 0-1 deficit into a 3-1 win.
Since that match, Spain have recorded wins in a couple of friendly internationals, the last of which was in Paris in March 2010.
Spain have actually won 3 of the last 4 matches between the nations, but all in friendlies.
Prediction
For a period of time, I was almost certain that I was going to take Spain to win this game 1-0, but I have looked back at some of those matches from the Groups and they have looked a little vulnerable, despite not giving up huge chunks of possession.
Spain have also looked a little short of ideas at times and I can see the French causing a huge surprise tonight if they keep their concentration and defend properly- without a recognised striker, it seems things are a little more compact for Spain as they don't have enough players trying to stretch the field and that could make it very tough for them to provide the killer ball in the final third.
France have looked susceptible to the set pieces and crosses coming into the box, but that is not really a style of football that Spain play so it could be a little 'easier' for the French to defend against them. It would be more than a slight surprise if France were to conceded from a set piece against an under-sized Spanish team.
On the other hand, France have also found it a little more difficult creating chances as they also seem to play a little more compact with Karim Benzema insistent on coming deep to pick up the ball. However, they at least have a few more willing runners from the midfield and that could pay dividends for them.
The issue there is how many runners will France send while they are containing Spain and how much possession will they see with the Spanish likely to dominate that aspect of the game. France do have some ball players so they should do OK when they have the ball, but it will be all about taking the big chance that is likely to fall their way.
Italy managed to take it when they got their opportunity, Croatia failed to when they had theirs so that could be the key for the French tonight.
I considered dutching the 1-0 scoreline to either team for the game, but I do think the 0-0 is in play for the end of 90 minutes too. I think it is a lot harder to separate the sides than the odds on quote for Spain suggests (a vast over-reaction to the Sweden win over France in my opinion) so I am going to play the Under 1.5 goals in this one.
The Pick :
Spain 0-0 France
