English Premier
2012-09-22 - Southampton vs Aston Villa
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : England : Premier League
Saturday, September 22nd, 2012, 3:00PM GMT
PREVIEW
Well as fun as it was watching Southampton ship 6 goals at the Emirates, this is not a side that should be taken lightly. They've more than proved it in scoring 2 against Manchester City and Manchester United each.
Southampton did not play badly last Saturday, they just ran into a very very good Arsenal defence that is near perfect this season. Unfortunately they have now shipped 14 goals and the reason for that is clear. Southampton aren't parking the bus and playing boring. They're going to have a bloody good go at their opponents, whoever they are and wherever the game is being played. The result? Goals.
Unfortunately, that gung-ho attitude has resulted in a lot of goals being scored against them, 2 being the least. It's now 4 losses in 4 games, and I find it hard to understand why they are being priced as favourites here against Aston Villa, who are just off their first morale boosting win.
Villa began with a 1-0 loss at West Ham followed by a 3-1 loss against visiting Everton. Confidence began to come with that 3-0 win over Tranmere in the Cup, before they held Newcastle to a decent 1-1 draw on Tyneside. Then last week, the first win, 2-0 against Swansea. It's a steady upwards progression and it had to be so, for they are playing under a new manager. It was always going to take a bit of time for things to start clicking (same situation at Tottenham) and you know with a quality manager like Lambert this team will do well.
Looking at Southampton's games, only the 2-0 loss away at Wigan went Under the total this year. The other 3 games have not been short of goals, with both teams scoring in all 3. Southampton led both Manchester United and Manchester City before losing each game 3-2, and then there was the 6-1 goalfest in London.
BETTING VERDICT
Villa have scored just 4 in their last 10 away games but they are playing a team that has just tied the record for most goals conceded after the opening 4 games of a Premier League season.
Southampton cannot hold leads, concede goals early and especially late, and are allowing opponents more shots on target than anyone else.
Villa will have enough opportunities to win this bet on their own, but Southampton go for it too, have a great striker who can make a difference, so there is no reason to expect a quiet game.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Over 2.5 goals
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Over 2.5 goals @ 2.00
