NCAA Football
2012-09-22 - Clemson Tigers at Florida State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 4
Saturday 22 September 2012 - Kick Off 8pm
1am (British Time)
Preview
This is by far the biggest game of the week as two top 10 ranked schools face one another, but also the fact that both are in the ACC Atlantic Division with the winner very likely to run the table and possibly get into contention for a spot in the National Championship Game.
The Florida State Seminoles (3-0) and the Clemson Tigers (3-0) will both feel confident that they can maintain their unbeaten run, while the pressure is on as both Head Coaches know a defeat will likely end their bid to play in the ACC Championship Game and beyond.
EJ Manual and the Seminoles Offense will feel they can get the ball moving against the Clemson Defense in the game. Clemson have given up 188 yards per game so far this season, but they haven't played a Quarter Back as good as Manual so I expect he will have success too. The Offensive Line is protecting Manual and the Tigers don't generate enough of a pass rush to think anything other than the Quarter Back will have time to make plays against them.
Manual will need to be careful though as the Tigers do have a ball-hawking Secondary that can turn the ball over.
A bigger problem for Clemson when dealing with Manual is the fact that they are giving up 4.8 yards per carry on the ground this season and are facing a team that can rush the ball very effectively. Manual provides that dual-threat from the Quarter Back position, while Chris Thompson and James Wilder will also be able to generate yards when rushing the ball.
While I think the Seminoles do move the chains in this game with some consistency, the question becomes how will Clemson deal with the Florida State Defensive Line that looks as good as anything out there in College Football.
Brandon Jenkins is a huge loss at the Defensive End position, but Bjoern Werner (who I am absolutely high on) has been very effective from the other side and has taken over as the leader of the Defensive Line. Werner has 6.5 sacks this season and they are really going to pressure this inexperienced Clemson Offensive Line who won't have seen a Defense like this before.
Florida State are giving up almost nothing on the ground so the pressure will be on Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins to make big play after big play and that will be difficult if Boyd is throwing from 3rd and long situations. If the Seminoles get a chance to pin back their ears and rush the Quarter Back, it is going to be really tough for Clemson to do anything consistently.
I expect Clemson to get some points on the board because any team that has Boyd and Watkins around will have some success, but it is going to be really tough for them to do that regularly in this match up.
Head to Head
Clemson beat Florida State 35-30 last season which means the home team has won 5 in a row in the series, although the Tigers are now 5-2 in the last 7 in the series.
The Tigers are also 6-1 against the spread in those 7 games.
Florida State are 3-2 both straight up and against the spread in thei last 5 games at home against Clemson.
Other Interesting Trends
Florida State are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 Conference games.
Clemson are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 Conference games.
However, they are just 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games overall.
Prediction
This is a huge game and no wonder it has been placed as the National Televised evening kick off. I am going to be backing the Florida State Seminoles to win the game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, this is a huge revenge spot for Florida State after their loss last season and they will have been looking to make a statement all season about their National Title credentials. You can see what they did to Wake Forest in a revenge spot last week.
Second, the home team has dominated this series in the last few years, going 9-2 against the spread in that time.
Third, I think Florida State will be able to move the chains fairly consistently, while Clemson have a big disadvantage with their inexperienced Offensive Line going against one of the best, if not THE best, Defensive Line in College Football. That is where the Seminoles can begin to pull away as they stop drives and force turnovers.
The Pick :
Florida State 34-17 Clemson Tigers
