NCAA Football
2012-09-29 - Texas Tech at Iowa State
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, September 29th, 2012, 7:00PM (12:00AM GMT)
PREVIEW
This is a Big 12 conference game, as undefeated Iowa State take on Texas Tech. Both teams are 3-0 for the season and looking to push on, but this will be a tough one, even for both the improved defences. Both sides know losing this game could trigger problems, like it did last year.
Iowa were 3-0 before losing to Texas last year and that led them to spiral towards a 6-7 finish, while Texas Tech lost 41-7 to Iowa State last year and ended up losing 5 straight, so momentum and confidence must be maintained here.
Most of the talk has been about Texas Tech's offence, led by Seth Doege, who is completing 75% of his passes, but the defence really deserves our attention, because it has been brilliant. Texas Tech's Red Raiders are giving up just 164 yards per game at the rate of just 3.2 yards per play. Think about that for a second. Iowa State do not have an offence strong enough to skew those numbers much, and I think they're going to struggle to move the ball fluidly.
However, Iowa State will have a lot more success at slowing Texas Tech down than the previous 3 teams the Red Raiders have faced. They allowed Tulsa and Iowa to move the ball at the rate of just 4.3 yards per play, and held them to just 23 and then 6 points respectively. That defence was brilliant against Iowa, in what was a road game.
That Iowa State team had to rally to beat Tulsa, so the defence was better towards the end of the game, and in holding their next 2 opponents to 3 and then 6 points they have shown improvement. But, when attacking, I don't have faith in Iowa State QB Steele Janz, who has thrown 4 interceptions already and will likely be harassed by the Raiders D.
BETTING VERDICT
The spread has moved up to 3 points and I've a niggling doubt in my head about this, so I shall leave the ATS bet alone and go with Texas Tech to edge this one on the ML.
The Pick :
Texas Tech
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Texas Tech to win on the moneyline (ML) @ 1.72 (Pinnacle)
