NFL Football
2012-09-30 - Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 4
Sunday 30 September 2012 - Kick Off 4:05pm
9:05pm (British Time)
Preview
The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) picked up their first win of the season last week and now they host the Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) who have bounced back from an opening day beatdown from the Baltimore Ravens with back to back wins.
Both of these teams are in Divisions where they is at least one exceptional team as the Jaguars have the Texans and Cincinnati have the Ravens/Steelers, so making the Play Offs can hinge on winning these kind of games against 'lesser' teams.
Andy Dalton is making a decent fist of his second season in the NFL and he is greatly helped by having AJ Green to throw to. The Bengals have been gaining almost 300 yards per game through the air this season and Dalton should find some success throwing the ball in this one.
The Jaguars are struggling to get an effective pass rush, so Dalton should have time to make throws even though the Offensive Line has struggled to keep their Quarter Back upright. Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis should be able to get some running lanes in this one as the Jaguars have struggled to stop Backs gaining yards on the ground. If he can get the team moving on the ground, it may force Jacksonville to bring extra men into the box and give Green the space to take advantage downfield.
Jacksonville will do what Jacksonville always do and that is give the ball to Maurice Jones-Drew and let him pick up as much yardage as he can on the ground. He should be able to do that this week as the Bengals are giving up an awful 5.8 yards per carry on the season, but a lot will depend on whether Cincinnati sell out to stop the run and force Blaine Gabbert to beat them with his arm.
Gabbert is still struggling for consistency, although he has made some big plays at times including the game winning touchdown pass against Indianapolis last week. Cincinnati have a bunch of injuries in their Secondary so they are struggling to stop teams passing on them, although they do have a pass rush that could cause plenty of problems for this Offensive Line.
A big key could be the turnover battle- Gabbert is yet to throw a pick this season and that could be the difference between a win and a loss for Jacksonville this season.
Head to Head
Cincinnati visited this part of Florida last season and handed Jacksonville a 10 point loss and covered the 1 point spread.
That means the Bengals have won 2 in a row the series after previously losing 4 straight to Jacksonville.
Jacksonville are 4-1 in their last 5 home games against Cincinnati, going 2-2-1 against the spread.
Other Interesting Trends
Jacksonville are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games overall.
Cincinnati are just 1-3-2 against the spread in their last 6 games on the road.
They are 0-7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games against teams from the AFC.
Prediction
I have finally convinced myself to have a small interest on the Cincinnati Bengals winning this game and covering the spread for the following reasons:
First, I am not convinced with Blaine Gabbert and the Jacksonville Offense, even though they should have some success against a banged up Cincinnati Defense. I just don't believe they will have enough success.
Second, I like the chances of the big play from Cincinnati as AJ Green won't be easily covered in this one and I think that may end up being the difference between the two teams.
Third, I like a couple of trends that go against Jacksonville: They are 3-7 against the spread as the home underdog over the last couple of seasons; Jacksonville are also 7-17 against the spread coming off a straight up win, including 0-4 since last season; They are also 5-12 against the spread when given 3 or less points as the underdog.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Jacksonville Jaguars 16-20 Cincinnati Bengals
