Italian Serie A
2013-01-20 - Fiorentina vs Napoli
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : Italy : Serie A
Sunday, 20th January 2013 - Kickoff 11:30am GMT
BETTING PREVIEW
It has been a rotten new year so far for Fiorentina, who returned from the winter break and immediately suffered a 2-0 loss at home to Pescara. They were then thumped 3-1 at Udinese, and just 4 days ago played a very tough game in the Coppa Italia, where they took Roma to ET before being knocked out 1-0. That's a tough loss to bounce back from, and this game with Napoli looks to have come too soon.
Napoli of course were knocked out of the Cup back in December, so they've been rested since last weekend, when they beat Palermo 3-0. The week before that they thrashed Roma 4-1, just to give you an idea of how differently they fared against the same opponent in the space of a week.
Bear in mind that while Napoli have reversed their run of losses to win 3 straight after the break, Fiorentina have lost 3 straight since returning, having been on a winning run before.
Now look at the h2h with Fiorentina. Napoli have won 2 straight meetings, winning 3-0 on their last visit, and 2-1 this season at home. I see 3 draws before that so it's been a while since Fiorentina beat Napoli.
There doesn't seem to be much separating the sides in the table, with Napoli 3rd and Fiorentina 5th. But the fact is Napoli are 7 points clear, and have scored 3 more while conceding 6 less, giving them a +9 goal differential over their hosts. For me, that's enough to make them a decent chance to win, especially due to the recent results and form.
THE BETTING VERDICT
I think we're seeing massive odds on Napoli because prior to losing to Pescara, Fiorentina were unbeaten in 13 straight home games. However, Napoli bring very good recent away form to this match, winners of 3 of their last 4 away games in the league. They've also blanked 5 of their last 9 hosts!
I think we should be betting against Fiorentina in this one. There is a chance we may see a draw and lose, but at the price offered you have to take Napoli.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Fiorentina 1-2 Napoli
