Copa del Rey
2013-01-30 - Real Madrid vs Barcelona
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : Spain : Copa Del Rey
Wednesday, 30th January 2013 - Kickoff 8:00pm GMT
BETTING PREVIEW
Barcelona bounced back from that tough 3-2 league loss at Sociedad by winning 4-2 in Malaga to progress to this SF meeting with Real Madrid. They warmed up with a 5-1 league win at home, against Osasuna, with Messi grabbing another 4 goals to add to his ridiculous tally. That's bound to have everyone once again on their bandwagon, but I think it's going to pay to back Real in this match.
The fact is, that Barcelona defence still fails, game after game, to keep a clean sheet. Real Madrid have conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 matches in all competitions! Osasuna could not score at home, and Valencia played Real Madrid 3 times, losing 2-0 in Madrid before a 5-0 loss at home, after which they got a penalty late in the game to tie 1-1. Madrid booked their place here with that and then warmed up with another defensive masterclass, blanking Getafe here 4-0.
So 5 games, and just 1 goal conceded, away from home at the end of a 2 legged tie when they were 6-0 up on aggregate, and it only came via the penalty spot. They are hotting up just in time to be able to quite possibly upset Barcelona and progress to the finals. Bear in mind, Real Madrid might be 15 points behind Barcelona in La Liga, but they have a better defence. In fact, with just 20 goals conceded, Real have the 2nd best defence in La Liga, just 1 behind Malaga. Madrid have also surged up the table, and are just 4 points behind Atletico Madrid, and look likely to overhaul them.
However, the title will surely not be defended, not with Barca so far ahead. The Champions League is bound to throw up a lot of challenges yet in order to provide silverware, and with a tough tie with Man United looming, Mourinho will be targeting this game as a must win, so that the season has a chance of ending with some reward.
THE BETTING VERDICT
Barcelona's defence isn't capable of holding out, especially away from home. They blew a 2-0 lead at Sociedad to lose, and allowed Malaga to score 2 goals, but got through to this SF by outscoring them, which is what they need to do with most teams.
Many will be expecting Barcelona to concede but outscore Real, but I'm not so sure. In fact, I'm not sure Barcelona will score twice, although I'm not going to bet against that either, what with the potential.
I like the way Real Madrid have been going about things on offence. They've scored a bunch in recent games and I fancy them to give Barca a real run for their money. They have to, because the next leg is in Barcelona, where the Blaugrana will likely win out.
The 2 teams played out a 2-2 draw in the league meeting at Barcelona earlier this season, with Messi and Ronaldo both having a say. The same thing might happen again, and while the Both Teams To Score and Overs are bet down to about the same price - under 1.50, I think we should either be looking at a narrow Real Madrid win, or just put our faith in them to score at least twice. Looking back at the last 5 meetings, home and away, I see Real Madrid have scored exactly 2 in each game!
If Madrid are to win this 1st leg, they need to score at least twice, as I'm sure Barca will net at least once. We're being offered a decent price on Madrid to score 2, regardless of what they do on defence, and that looks a good bet as we could collect whatever the result, as long as Madrid's offence comes good. Against this Barca defence, I think we have a solid chance of collecting.
The Pick :
Real Madrid 2-1 Barcelona
