NFL Football
2026-01-25 - New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : NFL Playoff AFC Championship Game
Sunday 25th January 2025 - Scheduled 3pm
8pm (British Time)
Preview
There was some controversy attached to the end of the Denver Broncos (15-3) win over the Buffalo Bills with a long debate over whether the road team should have been awarded a catch in Overtime that would have put them in a position to win the game. If the decision on the field had ruled Brandin Cooks down with the ball, there would unlikely have been an overturn on the review, but that is in the books and it is the Broncos who will be hosting the AFC Championship Game as the Number 1 Seed.
Fans would have left the Stadium in buoyant mood, but that would have changed very quickly.
Quarter Back Bo Nix was quickly ruled out for the season having suffered an injury on the penultimate play of the Divisional Round win over the Bills.
All of a sudden, the Denver Broncos are going to be heading into the Conference Championship Game with a backup at the most important position of any sport.
Making it all the more challenging is that Jarrett Stidham has not thrown a pass in the NFL since Week 18 of the 2023 regular season.
Head Coach Sean Payton is backing his Quarter Back to come in and do what is needed for the Denver Broncos and there will be plenty of respect for Stidham on the other sideline considering he was Drafted into the League by the New England Patriots (16-3).
He played under the guidance of Josh McDaniels and that should help the Patriots plan for what they may see from a Quarter Back that is the first since 1972 to have his first start of a season in the Conference Championship Game.
Josh McDaniels will be passing all of the data over to the New England Defensive unit, but he will also be focusing on making sure Drake Maye and company have a good plan to deal with what has been one of the top Defensive units in the NFL.
The Patriots have done just enough Offensively, but the run through to the Championship Round has been based on the performance on the other side of the ball. Drake Maye has had a very strong season at Quarter Back, but his two Playoff appearances this season have been erratic to say the least and he has to make sure he has better control of the football when he is being hit.
Turnovers could be a huge part of the outcome of this AFC Championship Game and so the Quarter Back has to be careful.
He will be looking to lean on the New England rushing attack, which has been operating well, and there looks to be an advantage on the Line of Scrimmage in favour of the Patriots. For much of the season the Broncos have been very good at stopping the run, but they have struggled towards the end of the regular season and into the Playoffs and keeping Drake Maye in front of the chains would give the Number 2 Seed a real advantage.
Third and manageable compared with third and long will be a huge difference for the New England Offensive unit.
Putting Maye in a position where he can make quick throws to keep the chains moving would be a distinct advantage, but holding onto the ball too long will allow the Denver pass rush to have a big impact in the contest. The Patriots Offensive Line have been very good at establishing the run, but the pass blocking has been something of a weakness and Drake Maye will not want to attempt to attack this Denver Secondary with the pocket collapsing around him.
You have to imagine the Broncos Defensive players have been focused this week in producing their absolute best to give the injury hit Offensive unit a boost.
They look capable of at least slowing down the New England Offense, which has not exactly been lighting up the scoreboard in the two Playoff wins, and that will give Jarrett Stidham an opportunity.
It would not surprise anyone if Sean Payton has a solid plan for his backup, but you have to believe the Broncos are going to want to get behind this Offensive Line and at least make sure they can establish the run.
JK Dobbins looks set to miss out again, which is another blow for the Offense, and the Broncos will have noted how effective this New England Defensive Line have been at playing the run in recent games. They have made things very difficult for the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans and so the game plan may be to get Jarrett Stidham comfortable and ask him to make some quick, easy throws to settle in, especially while New England anticipate plenty of early runs.
Head Coach Mike Vrabel has really put together a strong Defensive unit and they have a team that will feel they can shut down the Broncos.
If they can keep Denver in third and long, the New England Secondary will be full of confidence and belief in their Secondary having made Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud look very ordinary. They have also been turning the ball over with great success in the two Playoff wins, although Jarrett Stidham may be given a bit more protection behind the Denver Offensive Line than either Herbert or Stroud were afforded.
Those Interceptions being created by the Patriots have to be respected and New England do look capable of winning this one on the road.
However, there have only ever been 10 Road Favourites of 4 or more points in the Conference Championship Round and those teams are a perfect imperfect 0-10 against the spread.
Hosts that have been set as the underdog are on a 14-3 run against the spread in the NFL Playoffs over the last decade too.
Good teams do have a habit of stepping up their level to offer as much support as possible to a backup Quarter Back, while Denver are hosting, which should also be a big help.
Most are going to back the New England Patriots against Jarrett Stidham, but this Broncos Defensive unit can make this a low-scoring, competitive affair and that makes the points being given to the hosts appealing. The AFC hosts have tended to be the stronger at covering the spread in the Championship Game and the Denver Broncos will have a point to prove after the injury to Bo Nix and can keep this one close thanks to the Defensive unit going up against Drake Maye and company.
Prediction
Take the games with the Number 1 Seed who are down as home underdogs and have been since starting Quarter Back Bo Nix was ruled out for the remainder of the season.
The Pick :
Denver Broncos 20-23 New England Patriots
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Denver Broncos + 4.5 Points at -115 with BetOnline
