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World Cup News :: FIFA World Cup 2026 - Group F Preview - Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia

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Posted on 2026-06-04 by Gooner

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Onto Group F, which contains a real mixed bag of teams, and I feel a genuine chance of an outsider topping the group if things fall into place.

Netherlands

For anyone who grew up watching the legendary 1974 and 1978 sides, the modern Netherlands team evokes a profound sense of melancholy. Those glorious eras of Johan Cruyff and Johnny Rep playing breathtaking "Total Football" defined a generation, even if they twice suffered the cruel fate of losing consecutive finals to the host nations. Later on, as a Gooner, the memories of Dennis Bergkamp’s majestic elegance and Marc Overmars’ electric pace mean there will always be a soft spot for the Oranje style. Yet, the brutal reality is that the Dutch have spent the last few decades slowly, steadily slipping down the global pecking order.

Dutch qualification campaign for this tournament tells the exact story of a side that is good, but no longer world-beaters. They made it through safely, but it was a tight, unremarkable affair consisting of six wins from eight matches, dropped points via two draws against group runners-up Poland. Ronald Koeman's men reached the semi-finals of Euro 2024, and frankly, that semi-final ceiling is exactly where their true level lies today, they are a firmly entrenched top-10 side, but nothing more.

The market continues to trade on historical brand reputation rather than modern execution. FIFA places them at No. 7, while Elo clocks them at No. 10 globally. The bookmakers have made the Dutch the clear -138 (1.73) favorites to win Group F on the Bet365 Group F Outrights. The Netherlands will advance, but backing them at short odds to stroll through this group is a casual punter’s trap.

Japan

Japan remains the ultimate technical banana skin of international football. They are undisputed royalty in the AFC region, but what makes them truly fascinating is their proven track record of terrorizing heavily favored European giants on the world stage. One only needs to look back at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, where they pulled off two stunning 2-1 victories over both Germany and Spain to sensationally win their group, only to suffer their typical heartbreak by crashing out in the Round of 16 on penalties to Croatia. That is the quintessential Japanese tournament experience: brilliant, high-energy giant-killers who simply lack the elite depth to sustain a deep run through the knockout stages.

The predictive models are completely split on the Samurai Blue. While FIFA ranks them at No. 18, the sharp, form-driven Elo algorithm rockets them up to No. 13, right on the coattails of the European elite. Bookmakers have tuned into this data, positioning Japan as the second favorites to top the group at +300 (4.00) on Bet365. Given their mechanical efficiency and relentless pressing system, their opening match against a sleepy Dutch midfield in Dallas is primed for an upset.

Sweden

On paper, Sweden possesses a mouth-watering selection of elite attacking talent. With Arsenal's target-man Viktor Gyökeres, Liverpool's electric Alexander Isak, and Spurs' creative winger Dejan Kulusevski, they have the individual weapons to tear apart any defense in the world. But football is played on grass, not paper, and this current crop is a pale yellow shadow of the great Swedish collective sides of the past. At their best, they are dangerous; at their worst, they are an utterly disjointed, tactical disappointment.

Sweden's road to North America was an absolute shambles. They finished dead last in their automatic European qualifying group without a single victory, only making the plane because they sneaked through the UEFA Nations League playoff backdoor. They suddenly found a pulse in those high-stakes playoffs, brushing aside Ukraine 3-1 in the semi-finals before edging out Poland 3-2 in a chaotic final. FIFA punishes their inconsistency with a ranking of No. 38, while Elo docks them further to No. 42. Priced at +450 (5.50) to win the group, they are highly volatile. If the front three don't click instantly, they will head home early.

Tunisia

Then we have Tunisia, a side that made footballing history during this cycle by achieving an absolute statistical marvel. The Carthage Eagles completed their entire World Cup qualifying campaign without conceding a single goal, putting up an immaculate record of 9 wins, 1 draw, and a 22-0 goal difference. As an Arsenal fan, any team showing that level of fanatical devotion to a rigid, impenetrable low block deserves a round of applause.

However, before we crown them the modern-day George Graham Arsenal defense, let's look at the actual context. Their qualifying group consisted of footballing lightweights like Namibia, Liberia, and Malawi—sides all buried between 120th and 150th in the global world rankings. Keeping clean sheets against part-timers is one thing; trying to repeat the trick against Gyökeres or Japan’s transitions is a completely different universe. FIFA sits them at No. 44, while Elo drops them to No. 53. The bookies have properly labeled them the tourists of the group, pricing them at +900 (10.00) to finish 1st.

Group Overview & Best Bets

This group is a brilliant tactical jigsaw puzzle. The Netherlands will rely on pure individual quality to progress, while Japan will try to run them into the ground with organizational precision. Sweden is the ultimate wildcard, capable of scoring three or conceding three on any given day, while Tunisia will happily park a bus on the edge of their own penalty box.

The Best Value Play: Japan to Win Group F (+300 / 4.00) on Bet365.
The Dutch are far too short at -138 considering their tight qualification and semi-final ceiling. Japan loves nothing more than taking down European giants in the group stage. At 4.00, backing the Samurai Blue to capitalize on an unconvincing Dutch side is the smartest money on the board.

The Realistic Prop bet : Sweden to Finish 3rd 2.80 (+180).
Sweden have the star power in Isak and Gyökeres to comfortably blow past a limited Tunisia, but their completely broken structural system will see them found out against the tactical discipline of the Dutch and Japanese.

 

Sourced From : Gooners Guide to World Cup Betting

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FIFA World Cup 2026 - Group G Preview - Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand