Rugby
2011-09-30 - South Africa vs Samoa
A Sports Betting Pick by Mike
Rugby : Rugby World Cup 2011 : Pool D
Friday, 30th September 2011 - Kickoff 8:30pm (local)
Current IRB World Rankings: South Africa 2nd, Samoa 10th
South Africa
The Springboks lead Pool D after three wins against Wales, Fiji and Namibia and only need one point from their final clash to earn a quarter-final berth as group winners.
South Africa may be wary - but only for the media hype - Samoa are yet to portray the game plan necessary to rattle any of the big boys of this tournament. South Africa have won all six matches against Samoa and are strong favourites to win.
Team and Tactics
Coach Peter de Villiers has announced seven changes to the team from the Namibia match including Lock Victor Matfield - back from a hamstring injury - to captain the Springboks. Bakkies Botha is out. Hooker Bismark du Plessis makes his first start of the tournament.
Starting Springbok Team Lineup :
Tendai Mtawarira 1, Bismarck Du Plessis 2, Jannie Du Plessis 3, Danie Rossouw 4, Victor Matfield 5, Heinrich Brüssow 6, Schalk Burger 7, Pierre Spies 8, Fourie Du Preez 9, Morné Steyn 10, Bryan Habana 11, Frans Steyn 12, Jaque Fourie 13, JP Pietersen 14, Pat Lambie 15
On the Bench :
John Smit 16, Gurthrö Steenkamp 17, CJ van der Linde 18, Willem Alberts 19, Francois Louw 20, Francois Hougaard 21, Jean De Villiers 22
Quote of the day: "They're a brute side" - South Africa captain Matfield describing the Samoa team.
An area of conern for South Africa's "seniors" will probably injuries- as Samoa will not take any prisoners in this match and you cn be sure of seeing some brutally hard tackling during the game.
So the potential Q-final match vs Australia could be in mind for the Boks - and we may see many replacements late in the game.
Samoa
Samoa had a disappointing Pacific Cup campaign - but re-ignited their hopes of having a good World Cup when they beat a second string Australian side 32-23 in Sydney in August.
That result will be a big reason why there will be a massive Samoan fan-base at North Harbour on Friday night, and the match will feel like a home game for Samoa - especially if the Pacific island side can can stay close.
Team and Tactics
Samoa are very aware their World Cup campaign is over unless they can attack - and I mean attack - to pull off a shock win against South Africa. Samoa have shown that they can win key set pieces, but I don't think it will be enough against the full-strength Boks.
Starting Samoa Team Lineup :
1 Sakaria Taulafo, 2 Mahonri Schwalger, 3 Census Johnston, 4 Daniel Leo, 5 Kane Thompson, 6 Taiasina Tuifua, 7 Maurie Faasavalu, 8 George Stowers, 9 Kahn Fotuali'i, 10 Tusi Pisi, 11 Alesana Tuilagi, 12 Eliota Fuimaono Sapolu, 13 Seilala Mapusua, 14 David Lemi, 15 Paul Williams
On the Bench :
16 Ole Avei, 17 Anthony Perenise, 18 Logovi'i Mulipola, 19 Ofisa Treviranus, 20 Filipo Lavea Levi, 21 Junior Poluleuligaga, 22 George Pisi
Samoa are apparently nursing injury concerns: openside flanker Maurie Fa'asavalu (who suffered a head knock) and pivotal playmaker Tusi Pisi has ongoing hamstring issues.
Other Variables
Referee: Nigel Owens (WAL)
The Venue: North Harbour Stadium, Auckland
The Weather: Cloudy, maybe a little rain. Blustery easterlies, so expect some handling errors and a swirling high ball.
The Verdict
The Springboks are obvious favourites to win, and win they probably will, but I don't really see a massive margin of victory against the fired up Samoan side.
South Africa already have one eye on Australia in the Quarter-Finals and I would expect to see the playmakers "rested" partway thruogh the second half ... so the score SHOULD not blow-out.
Take Samoa to win on handicap.
The Pick :
Samoa +17.5 points
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Side Bet :I'm putting first/last try scorer bets on Winger JP Pietersen at 8.50 (15/2) at Paddy Power
Money-Back Special : If a Number 11 scores the first try in any of the Rugby World Cup group matches Paddy Power will refund all losing try scorer bets on that match.
HANDICAP BETTING TIP :
Main Bet :Take Samoa to win on handicap with a +17.5 point start
