Spanish La Liga
2026-04-04 - Mallorca vs Real Madrid
A Sports Betting Pick by Gladiator
Football: Spain: La Liga - Round 30
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix (Palma de Mallorca), Spain
Saturday, 4th April 2026 - Kick Off 16:15 CET
Mallorca
Mallorca are in genuine trouble. Sitting 18th in La Liga with just 28 points from 29 games, Martin Demichelis has barely had time to settle since taking over last month, and results have been mixed. A useful 2-1 win over Espanyol gave way to a deflating home defeat against fellow relegation battlers Elche, conceding twice in nine minutes after taking the lead, which tells you something about this squad's psychological fragility under pressure.
Johan Mojica and Jan Virgili return from suspension for this one, which at least gives Demichelis some options back in defence and wide areas. Jan Salas and Lucas Bergstrom remain out, and there are late fitness concerns over Takuma Asano and Marash Kumbulla. Up front, Vedat Muriqi has been their standout performer with 18 goals this season — he's the one player capable of causing Madrid problems, particularly from set pieces and in the air.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid come into this match in decent form, having won three games on the bounce, including a 3-2 derby comeback win over Atletico at the Bernabéu. However, the injury list is long. Thibaut Courtois is out with a thigh problem, Federico Valverde is suspended following his red card in the derby, and Rodrygo is facing around 12 months out after a serious knee injury. Ferland Mendy, Dani Ceballos, and Raul Asencio are also doubts, while Vinicius Junior is being assessed for a thigh complaint.
The good news is that Kylian Mbappe returns to the starting XI for the first time since February, and Eder Militao is expected back in the squad after recovering from a hamstring injury sustained in December. Andriy Lunin continues in goal, and the back four of Alexander-Arnold, Rudiger, Huijsen, and Carreras has been holding up well. With Arda Guler and Brahim Diaz providing creativity behind Mbappe, Real Madrid still have more than enough quality to handle a struggling Mallorca side.
Betting Verdict
Real Madrid are the obvious pick here, and odds around 1.60 reflect that. The more interesting question is whether this turns into a comfortable win or another slightly nervy evening. Real Madrid have scored at least twice in 11 of their last 13 league games, and Mallorca's defensive record on home soil has been poor — they've conceded in 10 of their last 12 league games.
However, Mallorca at Son Moix are not completely toothless — they've won three of their last five home games, and the last time these teams met here it finished 1-1. Muriqi's aerial threat is a genuine concern given Real Madrid's makeshift defensive setup. The over 2.5 goals at around 1.66 looks decent value based on Madrid's recent scoring output and Mallorca's inability to keep clean sheets. Both teams to score is also worth exploring, given Muriqi's form and Real Madrid's porous defensive record this season.
For those wanting a more direct route, Real Madrid to win and over 1.5 goals covers the most likely scenario without overextending on a scoreline.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Mallorca 1-2 Real Madrid
