Rugby League
2026-09-25 - Redcliffe Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : NRL Season 2026
Friday 25th September 2026 - KO 1950 AEST
Redcliffe Dolphins
The Dolphins have already achieved something extraordinary. They finished third in the regular season, which ensured their first ever finals appearance. Defeated the Warriors 26-16 in their qualifying final, and earned themselves a precious week off while the rest of the competition fought through sudden-death football. Kristian Woolf's side now returns to Suncorp rested, settled and knowing that victory sends them into the biggest game in the club's history.
The week off could prove enormously important - Finals football is physically brutal, and while the Roosters had to produce a huge effort against Cronulla, the Dolphins have had an additional seven days to recover, prepare and analyse exactly how they want to attack this game. And they have plenty of attacking weapons.
At the back is Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, one of the most dangerous broken-field runners in the competition. When the Hammer gets space, he can turn an ordinary set into six points within seconds. Outside him, Jamayne Isaako, Jack Bostock, Herbie Farnworth and Selwyn Cobbo provide an imposing combination of size, speed and finishing ability, quite possibly the best backline in the competition.
Then there is the halves combination of Isaiya Katoa and Kodi Nikorima. Katoa has developed into a genuine leader of the Dolphins, the maturity he has developed while taking on the responsibility of halfback and co-captain. At just 22, he is already carrying a huge amount of responsibility in the biggest game of his career and his kicking game will be particularly important.
Up front,Thomas Flegler, Tom Gilbert, Max Plath, Kulikefu Finefeuiaki and Morgan Knowles give Woolf plenty of toughness through the middle. Flegler's availability is particularly significant. He failed a HIA early in the Warriors final but has cleared the concussion protocols and has been named to start.
The Dolphins have named the same starting 17 that beat the Warriors, which says plenty about Woolf's confidence in the combination. The Dolphins have won their last eight games at Suncorp Stadium, and Friday's preliminary final is officially sold out. This could be one of the loudest nights in the club's short history.
Sydney Roosters
If the Dolphins are the emerging force, the Roosters are the experienced heavyweight. They have been in finals football regularly, and their response to the loss to Penrith in Week One was emphatic.
Sydney utterly destroyed Cronulla 46-10, turning a relatively competitive first half into a second-half avalanche. Tedesco produced 161 metres and 11 tackle breaks, while try scoring machine, Mark Nawaqanitawase scored twice. That performance should give the Roosters enormous confidence.
Sam Walker has been named to return at halfback, with Daly Cherry-Evans moving back to five-eighth. Hugo Savala moves onto the interchange bench. Walker is returning just 24 days after suffering the syndesmosis injury against, remarkably - these same Dolphins. It is a huge gamble, but potentially an equally huge boost. Walker gives the Roosters a different type of attacking threat. He can play square to the defensive line, produce a short kicking game and create something from broken play.
As a result, Cherry-Evans, returns to the position where he can provide his greatest value in a big game - controlling the overall structure and managing the moments. The million dollar question is whether Walker can physically withstand the intensity of a preliminary final.
James Tedesco remains the heartbeat of the side, while Daniel Tupou and Mark Nawaqanitawase provide enormous finishing power. Billy Smith and Robert Toia have also been retained in the centres. Nawaqanitawase deserves particular attention. He has scored five tries in just three games against the Dolphins. That is an extraordinary record and suggests he has found something in this matchup that has consistently troubled the Dolphins.
Naufahu Whyte, Lindsay Collins, Reece Robson and Victor Radley will be expected to take the fight directly to the Dolphins. And one of the Roosters greatest strengths is their bench, Connor Watson, Angus Crichton, Nat Butcher and Spencer Leniu give Trent Robinson plenty of impact options.
Odds
The home team Dolphins start as favourites, $1.70 to $2.20, the line is 2.5 points and combined points 44.5
The Betting Verdict
There is a place in the 2026 NRL Grand Final on the line when the Dolphins meet the Sydney Roosters at a sold-out Suncorp Stadium on Friday night.
For the Dolphins, this is uncharted territory. They are just four seasons into their NRL existence and are now 80 minutes away from their first Grand Final. For the Roosters, it is another chapter in a club accustomed to September football, with this their 13th finals campaign in the past 14 seasons.
This a terrific preliminary final, and there is a fascinating contrast between a Dolphins side that has had a week to prepare for the biggest game in its short history and a Roosters team coming off a spectacular 46-10 finals demolition of Cronulla. The biggest story of all is Sam Walker's extraordinary return, just 24 days after ankle syndesmosis surgery.
These teams have met twice this season, Dolphins won the first meeting 48-10 in Round 15, before backing that up with a 26-12 victory at Allianz Stadium in Round 26. The Roosters therefore have a significant challenge ahead of them: they have lost both regular-season meetings, and now have to find a way to beat the Dolphins on their home ground with a Grand Final berth at stake.
But there is an enormous difference between the Roosters side that lost 26-12 in August and the one arriving in Brisbane this week.
Sydney have just destroyed Cronulla, with James Tedesco in outstanding form and the Roosters scoring five second-half tries. And now, incredibly, they welcome Sam Walker back into the side after his ankle syndesmosis surgery.
That makes this one of the most intriguing games of the season. Katoa is coming into his first preliminary final as the established halfback and leader of the Dolphins. They play very different styles, Katoa has become very composed. He controls the Dolphins shape and has developed an excellent kicking game. Walker is much more unpredictable. He can create something when the structure breaks down and possesses the kind of instinctive attacking ability that can change a game in a couple of plays.
The fullback battle is another enormous one - Tedesco v The Hammer. Tedesco is an experienced organiser who constantly gets himself into the game, particularly around the middle of the field. The Hammer is more of an explosive strike weapon. If the Dolphins can create broken-field situations, Tabuai-Fidow becomes extremely dangerous.
This is probably the hardest game of the two preliminary finals to assess. On one side, you have a Dolphins team that has beaten the Roosters twice this year, has had a week off and is playing at a sold-out Suncorp Stadium. On the other, you have a Roosters team that has just put 46 points on Cronulla and now gets Sam Walker back alongside Daly Cherry-Evans.
I also think the Dolphins ability to score points is being slightly underestimated with a brilliant backline, albeit up against a very classy defensive team in the Roosters. That's why I don't see this being a low-scoring grind. I expect both teams to have periods of dominance, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see the lead change at least once.
I think the Dolphins can win, but I don't see enough between the sides to expect them to win comfortably. The Roosters have too much experience and attacking quality to dismiss, particularly with Walker returning.
The Dolphins home record, two wins over the Roosters this season and extra week's preparation all point towards them having a very strong chance of progressing with Suncorp rocking and the Dolphins outside backs beginning to find space, I see the home side producing the decisive moments late.
(first/Anytime) Try scorer - Farnworth and/or Nawaqanitawase
The Pick :
Redcliffe Dolphins 22-18 Sydney Roosters
