Tennis
2018-05-29 - Rafael Nadal vs Simone Bolelli
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: French Open First Round
Monday 28th May 2018 - Scheduled 2pm
British Time: 1pm
Preview
This is a huge number for any professional tennis player to clear against another but just goes to show how strongly the layers feel Rafael Nadal is playing on the clay courts. Facing a competent clay courter like Simone Bolelli doesn't matter for the layers, and I tend to agree with them that the World Number 1 can produce a big performance to send out a marker to the rest of the field.
His Italian opponent is coming in as a Lucky Loser, although I am not sure how lucky Bolelli feels right now with the prospect of facing Nadal. This isn't the first time these players have met at Roland Garros with Nadal destroying Bolelli for the loss of five games a few years ago.
Something similar may happen if Bolelli struggles as he did in his final Qualifier when beaten 6-0, 6-2 by Santiago Giraldo who is nowhere near the level Nadal produces on this surface. While Bolelli's general clay court numbers will be strong, he is just 3-7 against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface over the last three years and he is going to be heavily reliant on the serve working to full power to have any chance in this one.
Realistically Bolelli isn't going to beat Nadal but the question is whether he can make this competitive enough to take advantage of the huge start he is getting. Rafael Nadal has been dominating opponents on the clay in 2018, but his service numbers are ever so slightly down on 2017 which could make it a tougher prospect of covering a huge number like he was used to doing in Paris last year on the way to a tenth French Open title.
He did cover this number in four of his six completed matches in Paris last season and Bolelli has to be a little fearful of a player who has seen his break percentage improve all the way up to 48% in 2017. Bolelli might be 0-6 against top 5 Ranked players in Grand Slam matches and half of those defeats have come by margins of eleven or more games.
Nadal in the current form is capable of handing out a heavy loss to anyone and I think he can cover this mark at odds against.
Prediction
This is a huge number, but I like Rafael Nadal at odds against to cover in the First Round at the French Open against the Lucky Loser.
The Pick :
Rafael Nadal 3-0 Simone Bolelli
