Tennis

2025-08-01 - Brandon Nakashima vs Ben Shelton

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Brandon Nakashima v Ben Shelton
Tennis: ATP Toronto Third Round
Friday 1st August 2025 - Scheduled 11am
4pm (British Time)

Preview

In individual sports like tennis, there does sometimes feel like a hierarchy is in place between compatriots- the World Ranking will show that more often than not, but there is also a mental challenge for a lower Ranked or younger player when it comes to facing someone whose game they will be very familiar with.

Maybe that is the case for Brandon Nakashima when going up against fiery Ben Shelton who has won all four of their previous matches on the Tour.

Two of those wins have been this year on the hard courts of Melbourne and Indian Wells, while twelve months ago, Ben Shelton also beat Brandon Nakashima in Washington. All nine sets have been won by Shelton, the World Number 7 and a leading hope for American fans when it comes to the US Open which will begin later in the month.

Brandon Nakashima made harder work of his Second Round win on Wednesday than it needed to be, but he played well and continues to beat those that he is expected to beat, especially on the hard courts. However, it is not only Ben Shelton who has caused him problems on the surface and Nakashima has something to prove in this Third Round match in Toronto.

Over the last twelve months, Brandon Nakashima has a 9-12 record on the hard courts when facing opponents Ranked higher than himself, but that reads 1-6 when only considering matches played in 2025. The numbers have been really poor as far as the World Number 32 is concerned with the hold of serve percentage dipping to 78% in those matches and breaks of serve being converted in just 10% of return games played.

You would have to expect Brandon Nakashima to be able to roll through some of his service games in this match, but it is hard to know how he will be able to create chances against the Ben Shelton serve.

Scoreboard pressure becomes a factor if that is the case and in the three previous hard court matches between the compatriots, Brandon Nakashima has broken in 8% of service games and won fewer than 30% of the points played on the Shelton delivery.

Ben Shelton is still a player looking to develop his game into a position where he can win a Grand Slam, even if he has made big impacts at Major level in his short time on the Tour. One of the key areas that needs to be improved is the return of serve and Shelton should be given credit for the fact that he is winning a few more points and breaking a bit more in hard court matches in 2025 compared with 2024.

One may be all that is needed to cover this handicap mark set and Ben Shelton's history against his fellow American is tough to ignore as he looks to reach the business end of the tournament north of the border.

Prediction

Ben Shelton has dominated this match up on the professional Tour and he is playing with plenty of confidence right now.

Lay the games with the higher Ranked player in this solid looking Third Round match as the preparation for the US Open continues.