Tennis
2025-11-06 - Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: WTA Finals Group Stage
Thursday 6th November 2025 - Scheduled 7pm
4pm (British Time)
Preview
By the time this final Group match at the WTA Finals heads to the court, the permutations for both Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff will be clearer as both look to move through to the Semi Final in Riyadh.
Things are pretty clear for Aryna Sabalenka if she wins- she will top the Group and move through and the defending Champion Coco Gauff will be left working things out depending how the other match in the Group has gone.
Most will have expected Jessica Pegula to have already beaten Jasmine Paolini and that would mean the defending Champion is eliminated with a loss.
Assuming Pegula has won, Coco Gauff will be well aware that she needs to beat her old rival Aryna Sabalenka and there are more maths to do about the number of sets and potentially number of games she will need to win.
By the time these two head to the court, the first result will be known and you have to believe both players are preparing to win and not worrying about 'doing enough' to be on the right side of the tie-breakers.
There is a real rivalry between Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka and the head to head is now 6-5 in favour of the American who upset the World Number 1 in the French Open Final back in June. Coco Gauff has also beaten Sabalenka in the US Open Final previously and got the better of this opponent in the last four of the WTA Finals here in Riyadh last season and none of this will have escaped Aryna Sabalenka's attention.
Tennis is a game determined by inches and there really has not been a lot between these two players in the numbers and the records- they are 4-4 in eight previous hard court meetings and they have played one another six times in the Semi Final or Final of events and those have also been split 3-3.
Rarely have matches been straight-forward and it should be noted that the last six matches between the pair would have covered the total games line set for this Group match. In fact nine of the last eleven have seen Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff combine for at least 22 games played and the performances at the WTA Finals over the last few days suggest we could need a decider in this one.
However, the players match up well enough to remain competitive even in straight sets losses and and the last three straight sets outcomes in matches between Gauff and Sabalenka have also ended with at least 22 games played.
There is a small chance that the first match could determine how this second Group match is played once the players understand what they need to do, but these two always want to get one over the other. It should mean the focus is on simply winning and it could be a fascinating meeting again with both the World Number 1 and World Number 3 perhaps using the match as a chance to 'lay down a marker' ahead of the Australian Open in January.
Prediction
Look for these two rivals to be involved in another tight, competitive battle as the final place in the last four of the WTA Finals is decided.
The Pick :
Aryna Sabalenka 1-2 Coco Gauff
