Tennis
2025-11-09 - Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex De Minaur
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: ATP Finals Group Stage
Sunday 9th November 2025 - Scheduled 2:30pm
1:30pm (British Time)
Preview
The Davis Cup is the official end of the 2025 ATP season, but this is the last big Singles event of the year before players can take some time away from the sport and just reset.
Winning the ATP Finals is a big achievement and Carlos Alcaraz will be looking to add this trophy to his growing Grand Slam collection.
He won two of the four Grand Slams played in 2025, but twelve months ago the Spaniard failed to get out of the Group Stage at this event. This time Carlos Alcaraz will likely end the year as the World Number 1 as long as he makes it through to the Semi Final, although the ambitions will be much greater than merely getting through to the Knock Out Rounds.
The opening match will be a test, but Carlos Alcaraz has won another title since the US Open success and he has had another strong year on the hard courts.
First up is another match against Alex De Minaur, which will be the third time the two players have faced off in 2025 and Carlos Alcaraz has won all four previous matches between the players. When they met on an indoor hard court back in February, Carlos Alcaraz did need to come through in three sets and that will give Alex De Minaur some confidence.
The Australian will have been disappointed with the defeat at the US Open in the Quarter Final, especially considering how close that match had been, but that has not prevented Alex De Minaur from putting together a solid Asian swing. It means Alex De Minaur is the World Number 7 and he has reached the business end of a number of tournaments in what has been a solid year on this surface.
Over the course of the year, Alex De Minaur has shown an improved serve and that has made things easier for him.
However, the test for De Minaur is trying to impose himself a little more when it comes to facing the very best players on the Tour.
He has a 1-6 record on the hard courts against top ten Ranked opponents this year and his service numbers have dipped significantly in those matches. In those seven matches, Alex De Minaur has won around 10% fewer service points and that means holding in 70% of games played, which is always going to be something that puts him under significant pressure against the very best opponents.
It is a pressure that has meant only breaking in 14% of return games and so the edge has to be with the current World Number 1 to make a strong start to the tournament.
Despite the head to head record, this has been a match up that has caused Carlos Alcaraz some problems and that will have to be respected.
The Spaniard will be well aware of that too, but he should have enough to just about cover this line, even in a competitive outing.
Prediction
Lay the games with the World Number 1 in this opening Singles match at the ATP Finals in Turin.
The Pick :
Carlos Alcaraz 2-0 Alex De Minaur
