Tennis
2025-11-10 - Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritz
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: ATP Finals Group Stage
Monday 10th November 2025 - Scheduled 2:30pm
1:30pm (British Time)
Preview
Playing at the ATP Finals is a big achievement for any player, but there was a clear motivation for Lorenzo Musetti to make his debut at the tournament being hosted in his home country.
That meant taking in a tournament in Athens last week where Lorenzo Musetti had to win the title- he reached the Final on Saturday, but was beaten by Novak Djokovic, although it was later announced that the Serb would not take part in the ATP Finals and so Musetti comes into the draw.
He would have preferred a bit more rest after playing an almost three hour Final on Saturday and being scheduled in the Day Session at the ATP Finals in Turin on Monday. Motivation is high and that will help Lorenzo Musetti in finding some energy, but it looks a tough spot for him, even when beginning this tournament facing an opponent he has beaten in each of the last three meetings on the Tour.
The last of those was at the Paris Olympics and that was on a clay court, but Lorenzo Musetti also holds a big win over Taylor Fritz in the Wimbledon Quarter Final in 2024 and that will give him confidence even if he has not faced the American over the last sixteen months.
The sole previous hard court meeting between the players was won by Taylor Fritz who reached the Final in Tokyo since the US Open, but who had some disappointing tournaments in Shanghai, Basel and Paris. The last two tournaments were played on indoor hard courts, but Taylor Fritz has reached the Semi Final and the Final in his two previous appearances in the ATP Finals and only Jannik Sinner got the better of Fritz in the tournament last year.
It does feel that the Taylor Fritz serve is going to be key to the outcome of this opening Group match.
Lorenzo Musetti has had a big year and did reach a peak career World Ranking back in June, but he is just 1-6 against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts this season. His numbers have suggested he has been struggling to compete with the very best players on the Tour and Lorenzo Musetti just put in a huge week of tennis to merely make it to Turin, which could leave him short of the energy needed in this opening outing.
Improving the return continues to be the challenge for Taylor Fritz if he is going to take the next step and win a Grand Slam title, but he should find a way to get into the Musetti return games in this match. That should give the World Number 4 an opportunity to create the Break Points to put himself into a position to won and cover the handicap line set on Monday and Taylor Fritz looks more likely to do that and snap his three match losing run to this opponent.
Prediction
Lay the games with the higher Ranked player.
The Pick :
Lorenzo Musetti 0-2 Taylor Fritz
