Tennis
2025-11-10 - Jannik Sinner vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: ATP Finals Group Stage
Monday 10th November 2025 - Scheduled 8:30pm
7:30pm (British Time)
Preview
If he serves as he did in the Paris Masters Final, Felix Auger-Aliassime is going to make short work of covering this handicap mark.
However, all of the pressure is on his shoulders having lost each of the three hard court matches played against Jannik Sinner this season and now facing to face the defending Champion in a tournament where he is going to be getting some huge support from the stands.
Felix Auger-Aliassime did give Sinner a scare in the US Open Semi Final but the World Number 2 was perhaps not fully healthy in that match. And even then, Jannik Sinner was able to recover from an awkward second set to come through in four sets and he was pretty comfortable in the win over the Canadian in Paris a little over a week ago.
In two of the three hard court matches played over the last three months, Felix Auger-Aliassime has not been able to do much against the Jannik Sinner serve. This has kept the scoreboard pressure building on him and it was only some wasted chances in the Paris Masters that prevented the Italian from pulling away in that Final.
Jannik Sinner took the first Break Point on that day, but he was not able to take any of the next five played across two games and that just allowed Felix Auger-Aliassime to build some rhythm and confidence.
There is no doubt that the Auger-Aliassime serve is a major weapon, but his hold percentage has dipped to below 80% when only considering matches against top five Ranked opponents on this surface in 2025. His return remains erratic to say the least and that is also very notable when Felix Auger-Aliassime has gone up against the biggest names on the Tour.
As long as Jannik Sinner continues to serve at his current level, he will be relatively comfortable protecting this shot and that should allow him to play with some aggression on the return.
Felix Auger-Aliassime will be asked to serve at his absolute best level to stick with the World Number 2 and we have seen him fall away a couple of times, which makes the effort in Paris feel like the exception to the norm.
It is a big spread, and one that could become awkward very early in this Group match, but Jannik Sinner looks capable of covering and he will want to lay down an early marker to rival Carlos Alcaraz, who had a solid win on Sunday in his own opening match.
Prediction
Lay the games with the World Number 2 in front of his home fans.
The Pick :
Jannik Sinner 2-0 Felix Auger-Aliassime
