Tennis
2025-11-15 - Jannik Sinner vs Alex De Minaur
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: ATP Finals- Semi Final
Saturday 15th November 2025 - Scheduled 2:30pm
1:30pm (British Time)
Preview
This Semi Final was set before the final Group matches were played on Friday, but it is Alex De Minaur who will have been able to earn a day of rest between matches.
After losing his opening two matches in the tournament, Alex De Minaur's hopes of progressing into the Semi Final was hanging by a thread going into Day 5 in Turin. He had no choice but to win in straight sets in his final match, but De Minaur still had to wait and hope Carlos Alcaraz would beat Lorenzo Musetti before knowing he would be tasked with heading out and playing again.
Alex De Minaur has to take encouragement out of the fact that his performances have improved in each of the three matches played- after losing in straight sets to Carlos Alcaraz, De Minaur had a chance to serve out the match against Lorenzo Musetti before losing in three sets and then ultimately beat Taylor Fritz in straight sets to move through the Group.
Serving well is going to be really important against the World Number 2 and that has been something that has been challenging for Alex De Minaur when facing Jannik Sinner in the past.
It has also been the reason Alex De Minaur has lost all twelve matches played against the Italian.
All but one of those defeats have been on the hard courts, including in all three matches in 2025 and Jannik Sinner has won seven of the eight sets played between the players. Two of those wins earned by Jannik Sinner have been since the US Open and there is a massive advantage in favour of the higher Ranked player that is almost impossible to ignore.
Jannik Sinner has won 69% of the points played behind his serve compared with Alex De Minaur's 56% mark... This has led to Sinner holding in 91% of service games played compared with De Minaur doing the same in 63% of his own service games and these are big edges in favour of Jannik Sinner.
He was given a bit of an examination by Ben Shelton in the final Group match, but Jannik Sinner was largely in control and did not have to spend any additional time on the court.
This should all mean that the Italian is ready to reach another Final here in Turin and the World Number 2 may be able to do that in some style.
Prediction
Lay the games with the defending Champion in this opening Semi Final.
The Pick :
Jannik Sinner 2-0 Alex De Minaur
