Tennis
2026-01-23 - Frances Tiafoe vs Alex De Minaur
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis : Australian Open Third Round
Friday 23rd January 2025 - Scheduled 11am
12am (British Time)
Preview
The key to having continued success at Grand Slam level events is getting through the early Rounds without wasting energy, especially on the men's side of the tournament in the best of five set format.
Both of these players have been able to do that ahead of what is expected to be a prime time Third Round match, although Frances Tiafoe made slightly more awkward work of his Second Round match than was needed. Coming through in four sets is still important and he only spent a little more than three hours on the court, even if Tiafoe was looking a little fatigued at times.
That is far from ideal if there is any lingering fitness issues ahead of a match against Alex De Minaur, who also needed four sets to come through the Second Round match, but who was cruising at the end.
The home fans are going to be right behind their man and Alex De Minaur is very sure of his fitness and ability to stay out on the court for as long as needed. His style also works well against Frances Tiafoe with De Minaur capable of getting his opponent to have to dig in and win rallies multiple times in order to earn a single point.
It can be frustrating, while Alex De Minaur is continuing his development in order to challenge the very best players on the Tour.
Ultimately it has meant coming up short at the Quarter Final Round when it comes to the Grand Slams, but Alex De Minaur has been consistent enough to reach the last eight in five of the last seven Grand Slam events played. Twelve months ago he made the Quarter Final at the Australian Open for the first time and De Minaur is very comfortable on this surface.
The serve has improved and Alex De Minaur has made full use of that shot when not facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months. This now backs up his strong return game and De Minaur could give Frances Tiafoe plenty of problems, much as he has in the past meetings on the Tour.
The American will have to serve well and then hope he can build up some scoreboard pressure- Frances Tiafoe has struggled for consistency behind that shot, which has contributed to slip in the World Ranking, while that has also meant more pressure on his own serve.
Over the last year, Frances Tiafoe is also 1-7 when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and he has won less than 60% of his service points played in those matches. The return has remained steady compared with his overall numbers, even against the top players, but it is very hard to continue to have to break serve to merely stick with those names and this could be a problem again.
It says something that Tiafoe has only held 69% of service games played against Alex De Minaur compared with a 83% mark for the latter in the head to head.
Unsurprisingly it has led to the Australian winning four of the five previous matches between the players, including Alex De Minaur beating Frances Tiafoe at the US Open in four sets in 2018.
They did meet in a keenly contested match in Canada on the hard courts back in August, but Alex De Minaur found the breaks of serve needed and the feeling is that he can cover this spread even if dropping a set.
Prediction
It has been a long time since an Australian won the Open, but Alex De Minaur can keep those dreams alive behind a solid Third Round win.
The Pick :
Frances Tiafoe 1-3 Alex De Minaur
