Tennis
2026-01-23 - Daniil Medvedev vs Fabian Marozsan
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis : Australian Open Third Round
Friday 23rd January 2025 - Scheduled 11am
12am (British Time)
Preview
Winning a second Grand Slam title is the motivation that gets Daniil Medvedev out of bed every morning and he will feel that he should have been able to add to the 2021 US Open title by winning at least once in Melbourne.
Between 2021 and 2024, Daniil Medvedev reached the Final at the Australian Open in three out of four events run and he will have nightmares about the 2022 Final. He had led by two sets and a break against Rafael Nadal and had all of the momentum, but somehow things were allowed to slip away and Daniil Medvedev had to settle for a Runner Up trophy.
The World Number 12 has had his most success on the hard courts at Grand Slam level, but twelve months ago he was upset in the Second Round in Melbourne.
Little did Daniil Medvedev know that it would have been his best Grand Slam result of the year having been ousted in the First Round in Paris, London and New York City and so his two wins in the 2026 Australian Open have given him some confidence. These wins arrive after opening the season by capturing the title in Brisbane and so there is a real belief in the Medvedev game, even if he can still have those lapses of concentration that lead to dropped sets.
Only two sets have been dropped in seven wins to open 2026 and so Daniil Medvedev will go into this Third Round match as a strong favourite.
However, he will not be able to overlook Fabian Marozsan who has solid hard court numbers and who reached the Semi Final in Auckland in the build up to the opening Grand Slam of the season. Like his opponent, Marozsan has only dropped a single set in his run to the Third Round, but over the last twelve months, he has lost six of seven hard court matches played against top 20 Ranked opponents.
In those matches, Fabian Marozsan has struggled to make much of an impact on the return of serve and that has put some pressure on his own delivery. He has held 77% of service games played against some of the best players on the Tour, but that is not quite good enough and especially not in a best of five set format with more time afforded to the top players to 'get a read' on the serve.
Making it more challenging for the underdog is that he is facing Daniil Medvedev for the third time in the last eighteen months and both previous matches have been on hard courts.
They had a more competitive meeting at the US Open in 2024 than the final scoreline would suggest, but Daniil Medvedev was much more dominant when facing Fabian Marozsan in Almaty in October.
The higher Ranked player has held 83% of service games played in the two previous matches, but Daniil Medvedev has broken in 44% of return games and that is a considerable edge.
A poor year on the hard courts were littered with some disappointing defeats as far as Daniil Medvedev was concerned in 2025, but his numbers remained strong against opponents Ranked outside of the top 20. With the insight into the underdog's game in this one, Daniil Medvedev is expected to find a way to power through to the second week of the tournament and get his Ranking moving back towards the top 10 where he feels he belongs.
Prediction
Lay the games with the former three time Finalist at the Australian Open.
The Pick :
Daniil Medvedev 3-0 Fabian Marozsan
