Tennis
2026-01-26 - Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritz
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis : Australian Open Fourth Round
Monday 26th January 2025 - Scheduled 2pm
3am (British Time)
Preview
The 2024 Wimbledon Quarter Final between Lorenzo Musetti and Taylor Fritz was an entertaining five setter which was surprisingly won by the underdog Italian.
The odds are much tighter when they meet in the 2026 Australian Open with a place in the Quarter Final on the line.
We still have Taylor Fritz down as favourite in this Fourth Round match, which is not a surprise on the hard courts, but Lorenzo Musetti is being given a lot of respect. The World Number 5 actually is the higher Seed compared with Fritz, but there is little doubt that the latter is at his most comfortable on the hard courts.
Last year we did see Lorenzo Musetti pick up his level on this surface and that is backed up by the run to the US Open Quarter Final- his numbers were much improved on the hard courts and Musetti was able to compete at the Tour Finals for the first time in his career, which was another big achievement having broken through at Grand Slam level in Paris and New York City.
He has impressed here this week, but Musetti needed four and a half hours to get through his Third Round match and in very tough conditions- this has to have an impact on the gas tank, even with a day of rest between matches.
His opponent also needed to dig in to win his match, but Taylor Fritz did not need nearly as long out on the court and that is going to be important for him.
The American has also won both previous hard court matches against Lorenzo Musetti, including beating him a couple of months ago at the Tour Finals. That would have been a win in hostile surroundings, but Taylor Fritz is very experienced and his serve can be the big weapon in this match.
Over the first three matches here, Taylor Fritz has held 89% of his service games played compared with Musetti's 81% mark.
No one will be surprised that Lorenzo Musetti has produced the stronger returning numbers this week, but the conditions should be favourable to Taylor Fritz with the first strike very important here at Melbourne Park.
Taylor Fritz will take confidence from the win that was produced in Turin in November, albeit on an indoor hard court, although he will expect Lorenzo Musetti to offer plenty of resistance.
However, the longer this match goes, the more it should favour Taylor Fritz after the efforts Musetti made to get through his Third Round match, and the World Number 9 can reach his second Quarter Final at the Australian Open.
Prediction
Look for the narrow favourite to come through in a tight, competitive four or five set battle.
The Pick :
Lorenzo Musetti 1-3 Taylor Fritz
