Tennis

2026-01-29 - Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina
Tennis : Australian Open Semi Final
Thursday 29th January 2025 - Scheduled 11:30am
12:30am (British Time)

Preview

You cannot ignore the political backdrop to this Australian Open Semi Final when Aryna Sabalenka takes on Elina Svitolina. It has been a tournament filled with questions being asked of the American players about political upheaval taking place back in the United States, while a different Ukrainian player made headlines early at the Australian Open when criticising some of the top Russian and Belarusian athletes on the Tour.

There is not going to be a handshake before or after this match, but both Aryna Sabalenka and Elina Svitolina will be very respectful of what the other brings on the court. Added motivation cannot be ignored on both sides of the net and it is going to be very important for the two competitors to keep a lid on the emotions if they are going to find a way to compete in the Final of the opening Grand Slam of the season.

While impossible to ignore issues off of the court, the focus here has to be on how the two have matched up with each other.

Both have to be credited for maintaining unbeaten runs through the opening month of the season which has led to each winning a title, while the performances within the Australian Open have also been impressive.

Aryna Sabalenka has beaten a couple of young, developing stars of the WTA Tour in the last two Rounds, but Elina Svitolina will be the highest Ranked player she will have faced in Melbourne this year. Previously that match would have been against World Number 16 Victoria Mboko, but inexperience would still have been. factor in that Fourth Round match and now Sabalenka is facing someone returning to the top 10 of the World Rankings and who has plenty of Grand Slam experience.

Not only that, but Elina Svitolina is much more battle-hardened having beaten three players Ranked inside the top 22, while also having back to back top 10 wins. Those last two victories over Mirra Andreeva and Coco Gauff came in matches when Elina Svitolina did not drop a set and she produced some high quality tennis to make sure neither Andreeva nor Gauff could get a foothold into those matches.

There is still a mental obstacle to overcome as Elina Svitolina has not reached a Grand Slam Final before, but the run to the Semi Final here means her record in Majors is as successful post-motherhood as it was before she took her leave of absence from the Tour.

This is the first Grand Slam Semi Final since Elina Svitolina's surprising run at Wimbledon 2023, while the style of play has changed with the 31 year old looking to be more aggressive in her tennis. This has been evident here in Melbourne with Svitolina using the serve very well, especially when it comes to protecting the second serve, and Svitolina has really had a lot of success on the return.

She may have played some high Ranked opponents, but that has not stopped Svitolina from winning 52% of return points played, while she has broken at least four times in every match at Melbourne Park.

Of course it has to be noted that this time Elina Svitolina will be facing one of the best servers on the WTA Tour in Aryna Sabalenka and the World Number 1 has been particularly effective at winning a few more points behind the second serve. She may also feel there is room for improvement on the points won behind the first serve, but Aryna Sabalenka looks to be peaking at the right time.

Much like her opponent, Aryna Sabalenka's control of the serve has allowed her to play with aggression on the return and she has also been very effective at winning those points to keep the pressure on the opponent.

It does feel like this Semi Final will come down to which of the two players is most effective at looking after the second serve.

In recent meetings between the players, it is Aryna Sabalenka who has just been able to play the bigger points more effectively and her power has been telling on the return.

The majority of the previous matches have been on the clay courts, which is a surface on which Elina Svitolina may feel she can cause more problems for the World Number 1.

In two previous hard court matches, Aryna Sabalenka's first serve has made the difference, including in the first of those when the younger player was much lower in the World Rankings. The hard court match in Cincinnati in August 2024 was dominated by Sabalenka and the feeling is that she has the serving prowess to avoid the kind of capitulation suffered by Coco Gauff in the Quarter Final.

The blueprint to attack the Elina Svitolina serve has been shown in the Round earlier by Mirra Andreeva and you just have to believe that Aryna Sabalenka's comfort on the Melbourne hard courts eventually see her pull away for a solid win and a place in the Australian Open Final for a fourth year in a row.