Tennis

2026-01-31 - Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina
Tennis : Australian Open Women's Final
Saturday 31st January 2025 - Scheduled 7:30pm
8:30am (British Time)

Preview

On the pure numbers, you have to consider Aryna Sabalenka not only the World Number 1, but the top player on the hard courts on the WTA Tour.

This is the fourth year in a row that she will be competing in the Australian Open Final and Aryna Sabalenka has also reached the US Open in each of the last three seasons. Four Grand Slams have been won on the surface- twice in a row at both of Melbourne and New York City- but Aryna Sabalenka was denied a third straight success here twelve months ago when upset by Madison Keys.

You would also consider Elena Rybakina's game to work very well on the hard courts and so it is a surprise that she is playing in her first Grand Slam Final on the surface since the 2023 Australian Open.

In fact, you can go even further and state that it is a surprise that she has not reached another Grand Slam Final since that defeat in Melbourne, but Elena Rybakina has been in good form for several months now and there will be plenty of confidence and experience that she can call upon for this Final.

Both players have been in exceptional form at the Australian Open- neither has dropped a set and both Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina have been particularly effective at protecting the second serve. It is Rybakina who has a narrow advantage on the first serve percentage of points won, but the World Number 1 has been the slightly superior return player.

However, that return game is going to be tested by this Elena Rybakina serve, even in the Night Session when the cooler conditions can make the ball all the heavier to try and hit through the court. That has not prevented the World Number 5 from still having a big impact with her serve and that could be a key to the outcome of this match.

Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will know that they are going to win plenty of points when the first serve lands and both will want to get on the front foot. That could also mean playing with more aggression on the return of serve whenever a second serve is seen and this has been the one match up that has proven to be pretty challenging for the top Seed.

In 2023, Aryna Sabalenka came from a set behind to beat Elena Rybakina in the Australian Open Final and that meant the Belarusian had won the opening four matches between the players on the Tour and all in three set matches.

She most definitely had the mental edge at that stage, but two months later Elena Rybakina beat Sabalenka for the first time in the Indian Wells Final.

That result has sparked a positive run for the lower Ranked player and the last ten between these two players have ended in six Elena Rybakina wins.

It also includes a run of six wins in the last eight hard court matches, including Elena Rybakina winning two of three last year- both of those wins were on some of the faster hard courts at Cincinnati and then indoors in Riyadh, while Aryna Sabalenka beat this opponent in Wuhan in between those defeats.

Of course the win in the Australian Open Final is one that will give Aryna Sabalenka a lot of confidence, but in the eight matches on the hard courts since then, the World Number 1 has struggled to match the serving qualities of Elena Rybakina. The returning percentage of points won is 10% lower against Rybakina compared with Aryna Sabalenka's average and that is a big difference that keeps the top Seed under real pressure.

Her first serve has not been as punishing in those matches against Elena Rybakina either and the power that the latter can generate means she can stick with Aryna Sabalenka and give as good as she gets.

You have to respect the qualities of Sabalenka in winning multiple Grand Slam Finals and the consistency she has had at all Majors to reach the business end of tournaments over and over again.

Elena Rybakina has struggled for the momentum within Grand Slam tournaments that is needed to go as deep as she would have expected, but that has not been the case in Melbourne and she looks like she can upset the odds.

Twelve months ago, Aryna Sabalenka opened the season by winning the title in Brisbane and then reached the Final in Melbourne.

She has done the same in 2026, but Madison Keys managed to find a way to get the better of Aryna Sabalenka in 2025 and the feeling is that Elena Rybakina's game matches up well enough to help the 26 year old win a second Grand Slam title.

Prediction

The latter end of the Australian Open has been largely disappointing- there have been some very good moments, but the lack of real drama has perhaps left the fans short changed.

The Women's Final may be different when these two, big hitting opponents face off and it could have a similar feel to when they met in the Australian Open Final three years ago.

However, that day Aryna Sabalenka came from behind to win a maiden Grand Slam title.

This time the feeling is that Elena Rybakina has been comfortable within the match up and that can certainly help her in winning her second carer Grand Slam title and the first here in Melbourne.