Tennis
2026-05-29 - Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis : French Open Third Round
Friday 29th May 2026 - Scheduled Midday
11am (British Time)
Preview
The inspiration of Rafael Nadal means the top Spanish players are no longer considered clay court specialists, but capable of performing on all surfaces on the Tour.
Carlos Alcaraz has taken up the baton from Nadal, but he is missing at the French Open in 2026 and the Spanish media will be very much focusing on Rafael Jodar, the teenager who has enjoyed a really strong clay court season in the build up to Roland Garros.
It has been such a strong build up that Rafael Jodar has moved from World Number 89 in early April to one of the Seeding positions at the French Open. He is very confident on the hard courts too, but the clay is where he has made his move on the Tour and Rafael Jodar has to believe that the minimum expectation at this Grand Slam is reaching the Quarter Final.
Some will think that is overconfidence from someone who is playing in just his second Grand Slam tournament, but Rafael Jodar won a title in Marrakech before reaching the Semi Final in Barcelona and the Quarter Final at back to back ATP 1000 events in Madrid and Rome.
Suffice to say, he is feeling pretty good about his tennis and Rafael Jodar has dropped a single set through the first two Rounds.
There is an argument to be made that Rafael Jodar made life a little more difficult in the Second Round than he perhaps should have, but winning breeds confidence and no one should be surprised that he has been set as a big favourite in this Third Round match.
All credit has to be given to Alex Michelsen for finding his way through to the Third Round and the American could soon return to being a Seed at Grand Slam events having reached World Number 30 back in July last year. These days he is the World Number 42, which makes Michelsen one of those awkward early Round opponents that Seeds could run into, but he is at his most vulnerable on the clay courts.
The two wins at the French Open have been against the World Number 88 in the First Round and then the World Number 148 in the Second Round and the early loss for Taylor Fritz has opened things up for Alex Michelsen. Prior to the French Open, Alex Michelsen had compiled a 4-6 record on the clay courts and a player who is reliant on his serve finds it hard to deal with a 72% hold rate on the red dirt.
He wants to be aggressive, but that is not the right way to approach clay court tennis and it has put Alex Michelsen under pressure to deliver on the return, which is still a developing part of his game.
This is expected to play out in this Third Round match in Paris on Friday and Rafael Jodar should have a bit too much know-how on this surface for Alex Michelsen.
Rafael Jodar is 16-1 when facing opponents outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings on the clay courts this season- in the fifteen matches played before the French Open, Rafael Jodar has held 86% of service games in that situation and broken in 37% of return games and that is a level that should break down Alex Michelsen in this best of five set format and give the Spaniard every opportunity of covering a wide spread.
Prediction
It is the top half of the draw that may benefit most, but the upset of upsets on Thursday when Jannik Sinner was beaten in the French Open Second Round has opened this tournament up.
A man named Rafael dominated in Paris in his time on the Tour, but it is Jodar making his way onto the Tour who has been impressing.
He may not win this Grand Slam, but Rafael Jodar can make his way through to the second week and he should have too much clay court knowledge for Alex Michelsen in the Third Round in Paris.
The Pick :
Alex Michelsen 0-3 Rafael Jodar
