Tennis
2026-06-04 - Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis : French Open Semi Final
Thursday 4th June 2026 - Scheduled 5pm
4pm (British Time)
Preview
The second Grand Slam of the season has been one that has featured upset after upset and you will struggle to find too many people who selected the final four in the Women's event before the French Open began.
At least some sort of case could have been made for Mirra Andreeva and Marta Kostyuk, who make up the other Semi Final, but how many would have predicted Diana Shnaider and Maja Chwalinska to have made their way through the top half?
Both won Quarter Final matches on Wednesday in awfully tough conditions at the tournament- instead of the brutal heat of the first week, both players had to come through windy conditions that made it very difficult to control the ball, but both Shnaider and Chwalinska deserve a lot of credit for beating higher Ranked players.
There is a real storyline around both players too- Maja Chwalinska has won eight matches to reach the French Open Semi Final having begun her tournament in the Qualifying Rounds. She began her run outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings, but Chwalinska is set to earn a top 30 Ranking going forward and that means the next twelve months will be an opportunity to play in the biggest tournaments on the Tour.
For Diana Shnaider, the clay court season had been a difficult one as she struggled to mix it with the best players on the Tour, but back to back wins over Grand Slam Champions will have given her a whole heap of confidence. Those two wins over Madison Keys and Aryna Sabalenka have come in three sets and Diana Shnaider has come through the final set decider in each match without dropping a game, and that will have given the World Number 23 plenty of belief in her own tennis.
The comeback against Aryna Sabalenka from 6-3, 4-1, 30/0 behind is a huge moment for Diana Shnaider and now it is all about recovery, more mentally than physically.
Nerves are going to be a huge feature of this match with a Grand Slam Final place on the line and that does make it that much tougher to predict.
On paper you have to give the edge to Diana Shnaider who has had a solid record on the clay over the last couple of years and while competing at a high level.
Nothing is wrong with the Maja Chwalinska numbers, but the 24 year old has played in Challenger level events, which is backed up by her World Ranking, while she has not beaten a top 20 Ranked player yet in the tournament. At the end of this tournament, Diana Shnaider will be a top 20 Ranked player again and the younger of the two left-handed players has also beaten Maja Chwalinska on the clay before, albeit back in 2022 when Shnaider was making her way up the levels.
An early injury has perhaps held Maja Chwalinska back, but this run has still come out of left field considering what has been produced in the build up to the French Open- the numbers have bene strong enough, but those had come about at a much lower level than the main Tour events, and even then the Pole had a 10-5 record.
It is a run that will have some thinking back to 2021 when Emma Raducanu came through Qualifiers to then go on and win the US Open- more recently, Dayana Yastremska came through Qualifying and eventually reached the Australian Open Semi Final in 2024, but the latter of those players had more Grand Slam experience than Maja Chwalinska, who is taking part in just her third main draw appearance at a Major.
People are comparing it more to the Raducanu run, and this is likely going to be a match that features a lot of Breaks of serve.
Wind is going to be a real problem again on Thursday, especially with the roof likely to be open if the thunderstorms of early in the day are not expected to return. That does make it tougher with the nerves and emotions already pretty high for both players and it could come down to who can handle the conditions best when the pressure builds up.
The edge has to be with Diana Shnaider considering her experience of playing in bigger events, while she has looked the slightly more consistent return player and that may see her earn one or two more Breaks than Maja Chwalinska in this surprising Semi Final at the French Open.
Prediction
Very few, if any, people would have predicted this for a French Open Semi Final and a big opportunity has opened up for Diana Shnaider and Maja Chwalinska.
Expect plenty of Breaks as nerves have to be contained, but it is Diana Shnaider who feels like she is playing at a more sustainable level and she can edge past the Qualifier.
The Pick :
Diana Shnaider 2-0 Maja Chwalinska
