Tennis
2009-09-06 - Juan Carlos Ferrero vs Gilles Simon
A Sports Betting Pick by Billie
Tennis: United States, US Open Men 2009
Sunday 6th September 2009 - Start 11:00 ET / 16:00 GMT
Gilles Simon (France) #9 Seed
I must admit I'm not a fan of Simon, I dislike his mentality and personality on the court. Just hitting back balls, waiting for the opponent to make an error and without any initiative to dominate.
Of course, he dominates the bad players, but not because he wants to but because those players don't have the power to dominate the match. Simon gets back almost every ball, and you need to beat him 3 times in the rally before the winner is made.
It's a quality, but not a style that will bring him a Grand Slam. It's just to one-dimensional, and he can't hit the average winners with his forehand.
Of course Simon is still no. 9 in the world for a reason, but 2009 has not been a particular good year for him. He hasn't reached a final thus far, and has a YTD record of 30-21. He has performed best on hardcourt given his 19-9 record YTD, but it aren't the numbers you're expecting of a top-10 player.
Furthermore Simon has struggled with his fitness, and a knee injury has kept him from playing on top level lately. His confidence has been better, and when his game is not working the way he wants to, he can lose himself in frustration. All in all not the player I can trust.
Juan Carlos Ferrero (Spain) #24 Seed
His opponent is Juan Carlos Ferrero, former no. 1 of the world and US Open runner-up in 2003. That year was his peak in his carreer as he also won his only Grand Slam title, at Roland Garros that year.
Since then it's gone downhill, and performances were not great. This year has been okay, one title on clay but no real performances on hard (5-6). No impressive numbers, and obviously Ferrero prefers clay above hard.
He has no powerful serve, and works for his points. His footwork is important, as he needs accuracy to place balls, as he doesn't have the power of Del Potro.
THe Betting Verdict
Quite similar players, who both rely on their rallying qualities and lack real power. This will make it a clash with long points, a defensive Simon against a difficult opponent to beat.
Ferrero is not a guy who makes tons of errors by nature, and waiting for his errors might not be paying off for Simon. Ferrero will use Simon's weaker forehand to decide points, and Simon has trouble when he can't nstall his backhand shots on court.
Earlier this year Ferrero beat Simon on Wimbledon in straight sets, showing he can damage Simon on a fast court. Different circumstances this time, But Ferrero has the skills to play against the defensive tactics of Simon.
There are prices of 2.40 for a Ferrero victory, which is too big to miss. A price of 2.20 is closer to reality, and even though Simon might be favoured on his ranking, i don't see many other reasons then that.
