MLB Baseball
2025-10-17 - Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : MLB Playoff American League Championship Series Game 5
Friday 17th October 2025 - Scheduled 6:08pm
11:08pm (British Time)
Preview
There are still three games to play in the American League Championship Series, but there is already a reminder of how the 2023 ALCS played out between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers. All seven of those games were won by the road team and all four this year have done the same with this pivotal Game 5 set to be played at 2-2.
We know the Series is heading back to Toronto for at least one more game, but both the Seattle Mariners and Blue Jays are going to be incredibly keen to have the lead with two games to play.
All of the momentum is with the Toronto Blue Jays.
After struggling to find hits at home, they have racked up twenty-one runs in the two games played at T-Mobile Park, despite the reputation of this ballpark of being friendly to pitchers rather than hitters. Big Home Runs have turned the games in their favour and the Toronto Blue Jays have to be incredibly confident after forcing the Mariners to turn to key relievers out of the bullpen and still come up short.
The starters have not gone as long as the Mariners would have liked and a decision has been made to keep Bryan Woo in the bullpen and ready to go and instead go back to Game 1 starter Bryce Miller. Some fans will be surprised by that, especially as reports have had Woo ready to come out and pitch in both of the last two home games without the ace being used.
Bryce Miller had a tough regular season, but has pitched twice in the Playoffs and allowed three runs in over 10 Innings thrown. He held the Blue Jays to a single run in 6 Innings thrown and that was the Home Run allowed to George Springer as the first batter faced in that outing.
This is the most success that Miller has had against the Toronto Blue Jays and he has cooled off hot batters in that outing and will be looking to do the same here. It should be noted that Bryce Miller has allowed twenty-five runs in the last 29 Innings thrown at home, which includes giving up seven runs in 5 Innings in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays.
We have seen a complete turnaround in the batting performances of the two teams and it looks to be a challenge for the Seattle Mariners to get back on track.
They are facing Kevin Gausman for the second time in the Championship Series and tagged him with two runs in just shy of 6 completed Innings in Game 1.
That also saddled Gausman with the loss, but he did earn a decision win in this ballpark in the regular season when limiting the Mariners to three runs in over 5 Innings thrown who now has a 2-4 record and 2.94 ERA in the regular season and 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA in the Playoffs against this opponent.
Seattle have a very strong home record in the 2025 Major League season, but they have now lost all five games played here against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Prediction
It has been a really tough Series to understand with both batting lineups in much better form on the road than at home.
The Toronto Blue Jays may be able to continue that trend in this rematch between Game 1 starters, especially as the first time around was a very competitive outing from the two pitchers.
However, Kevin Gausman has been more consistent compared with Bryce Miller and the Blue Jays have already roughed up the latter at T-Mobile Park in the regular season.
They could not get much going against Bryce Miller in Game 1 of this ALCS, but the batters have found their mojo at the plate again and the Blue Jays can return home with a lead in the Championship Series.
Vladmir Guerrero Jr found another Home Run to help the Prop selections bring in another winning day.
However, it is with great regret that we saw Andres Gimenez hit a second Home Run in a row at 13.00- he was identified, but dismissed in the Game 4 preview as he had scored a Home Run in Game 3, the first since the end of August.
The Toronto bats are incredibly warm right now and George Springer can be selected again, as he was in Game 1. He produced a Home Run in his first At-Bat and that is the second time he has punched a Bryce Miller pitch out of the ballpark having produced one here in the regular season.
George Springer is 5.20 for a big shot in Game 5.
He has been good to all his backers in the post-season and Vladimir Guerrero Jr is unlikely to be kept off base. He can be doubled with Ernie Clement, who is quietly being very successful, for a Hit each with the double paying at 2.10.
Those Prop prices can be found with Bet365.
The Pick :
Seattle Mariners 2-6 Toronto Blue Jays
